A First Cross signal on a 10-min chart of the SPY that coincides with a close outside of a 2-bar price channel with a stop above/below the previous bar's high/low.
Here's an example where the green vertical line represents a signal that played out and the red vertical line represents a signal where you would have been stopped out based on the simple rules.
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So, going back to the beginning of the year you would have had 108 signals. 25 would have resulted in being stopped out (based on the rules established), while 15 could have been viewed as scratch trades (and for the sake of curve-fitting, I'll include the "scratch trades" as signals that didn't work out, so that's 108 positive signals, and 40 negative). So, out of 108 trades 62.9% year to date have resulted in "winning" signals.
Keep in mind, these signals are entry only, and rely on your discretion to raise stops to lock in winners or close out a position when you might sense that the market is turning. Nonetheless, it has the potential to give you a general short term bias to the market.
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