SPY Fibs

Interesting results today using Fibonacci to project price  targets on the SPY

Starting with the Dec.01 momentum gap up (using the 11/30 Close to the Dec. 1st Open) price reached a 200% extension (outside retracement) on today's Open.

Today's Open coincided to around a 150% extension of the previous day's range, while price was supported throughout most of the day at the 50% retracement measured off of the PDC and today's Open

Meanwhile, on a broader perspective, price was rejected from trading above it's 61.8% Fib. retracement today

When Head & Shoulders Attack...

Short sellers get squeezed...

RIMM - set up a H&S pattern. Just when the 200-dayMA was proving resistance a late-day rally last week looks to have squeezed shorts. There was a hidden divergence buy signal here with a higher low in price and lower momentum low.  Now that the 20-day is crossing the 200-day we either see a correction into 200MA support, or continuation until the 50-day comes into the 200-MA:

GLD - a H&S squeeze breakout

FCX - Shooting star today, but the squeeze was on a few days ago

GOOG - It had a chance to sell-off today, but closed higher and could force a squeeze above this resistance level:

V- a tight channel down, but 200-MA resistance overhead after this nice squeeze run

AAPL - looked like a H&S going in to last week.  The momentum oscillator broke out of a momentum divergence, but an abandoned baby candle pattern off of the 20-dayMA is still causing some price drift.

AMZN - getting a boost here from this triangle breakout, which looked to me like an evening doji star off of the $180 rejection last week.  A measured move out of this triangle isn't very large, so whichever way the momentum goes it can still show itself as divergent:

MON- looked like a good rejection on testing that breakdown zone, and looked to be following through....until it didn't, and shorts got squeezed again.  The momentum indicator broke out with price.

MOS - This complex Head & Shoulders is either looking for it's squeeze, or may be wearing its weakness on its sleeve.  Support from the 50-day, resistance from the 20-day and a lot of clear air below:

weekly charts

Some strong weekly performances and the close of this monthly bar is going to be a clincher

WYNN - flagging on top of it's 61.8% Fib. Retracement

IYT - Transports are closing in on their all-time highs

X- put in a strong advancing move this week

FCX - Bullish Advance Block method pattern, 14% off of all-time highs

CAT - broke out of $85 resistance in a big way

I just don't get this performance...is the parabolic move of CAT really justified in terms of fundamentals?  Not that it matters, but still curious

NFLX - having trouble with $200, but we've seen this selling result in squeezes higher time after time.

AAPL - doesn't look like a topping pattern to me

GOOG - I guess it's conceivable that this is a double top, but the buying tail may hint at lower price support while a break of the most recent bars high could be actionable

CREE - closed outside of this channel, first step in a bull flag breakout?

Silver - bye bye...lifting off

Copper - I mean, come on!

Dollar Index - interesting...wonder what would happen if equities and the dollar start trading in lock step

turn your head and cough

Shorts squeezed again!  lol
Right back into our pitchfork, safe and sound

Price opened just under the 20-day MA, which coincided with the 50% retracement of our most recent swing highs/lows.  A strong breakout candle, a close above the 61.8% retracement and a W-bottom pattern breakout set up today.

Price gaped up big today and didn't go any further than a 50% extension based off the Previous day's Close to today's Open.  This also coincided with a 150% extension as measured off of the previous day's range (low to high):

Being that the year is in it's last month, take a look and see where we are on the grand scale.  The S&P500 yearly chart puts us right under a confluence of resistance; the 23.6% level from the 1960 lows to the 2007 Highs and a 61.8% level from the '07 Highs to '09 Lows

However...The more times price tests Resistance...

amazing how well that 50% level was our S/R zone

month end

Monthly charts are complete.

DIA - having trouble at the 61.8%, somewhat bearish here

SPY - most bearish looking of the bunch (imo), shooting star candle that dinged the 61.8%.

QQQQ -strong, and nearly a 100% retrace of the entire '07-'08 selloff.  While a stab at $55 looks possible, a pullback (early next year?) would be healthy

IWM - a retest of the 78.6% retracement (inverse H&S look to it) the only issue that closed green on the month

charts

posted some charts over at Chart.ly

and added notes onto the Fib. document.

coiling

Seems like we're at a something's-got-to-give level at this point, sitting right on top of the 50-day MA, bouncing twice only to end up in the same spot (price made 4 attempts to close above the 20-day).

Descending Triangle, would have a large measured move in whichever direction it breaks out to

patience

  A trade in FCX today which demonstrates the importance of patience (and FCX can teach a graduate course in patience).  Price showed an ascending consolidation triangle after a momentum gap fill move.  I measured the momentum from the 9:15 (CST) breakout up until price consolidated to arrive at potential targets (50% & 100%) which were both hit (as soon as I got out). 

measure momentum for targets

  The general idea behind the Fibonacci price retracement tool is to measure momentum and segment it into proportions or ratios.  So if we have a momentum, consolidation, continuation pattern what we're looking for is a proportionate continuation.   If we have momentum and are looking for a measured move after consolidation we would look for AT LEAST half of the original momentum move for our first target.  Speed of achieving our 50% target and rejection or acceptance of this move can help gauge an expectation of a further extension, where we then look for a 1:1 target or 100% extension, or a "measured move".

So, with that said, here are some examples of the above explanation which took place today.

 The SPY triangulated for most of the day before breaking out

When price finally did break out you can measure the initial momentum (in this case I used the breakout bar) to get extensions beyond this price range:

In the above chart the 50% and 100% were achieved quickly, while the 150% extension took a steeper retracement before extending further.

Here's another example using a trade I actually took today in CREE.  The Fib.s were based on the momentum prior to a basing consolidation pattern, with the expectation of a measured move beyond $64.20.  The two blue arrows were exits taken, but I set them slightly under the actual price target.

Taking half off at 50% could at least increase the probability that we'll get filled on something, just in case our Fib. measurements were off ;)

overnight

EURUSD and @ES having the same setup overnight

EURUSD - a lot of buying tails at a previous swing low

@ES - holding a higher at 1184

Intraday Fib.s

I've put together a brief Google Document on using intraday Fibonacci retracements, with a focus on the 50% level.   Though it is brief, I'm expecting to add to it as time goes by, with more reference charts and notes.  The document is "private" but if you would like access just click on the linked image below and put in a request to view it and I'll open it up on an individual basis.

Friday's Fibs

Wednesday's session of the SPY showed a real body 2x greater than the previous day (2x-bar, indicated on the chart below by the teal paint-bar).  With that in mind, we look for the midpoint of that previous bar to act as a support or resistance level.

The High/Low of Wednesday worked out to be very close to the Open/Close prices.  So whether you used the High/Low or Open/Close for your Fib. measurements the difference was marginal (3-cent difference).

The price gap down on Friday was very close to the previous day's Low and Open.  It also closely corresponded to the 50% level as measured off of Tuesday's Low and Wednesday's High:

  With such a wide gap down (momentum) we can draw Fib. lines based off of the previous day's Close to Friday's Open.  In this case, our 50% mark was at nearly the same area as our 2x-bar midline and our previous day's High/Low 50% range, but what ultimately capped off the gap-fill attempt was the 61.8% retracement level:

If we consider the gap down Open as our initial momentum impulse we can look for price to make a measured move of this initial impulse.  In this case, Friday hit the 50% extension to the penny.