toddstrade

SPY monthly chart; only 3-times in the past 11-years that it set up a 2c short bias (there was another occurrence in 09/2004 which was faded).  Each occurrence carried with it a monthly candle range of greater than 10% and was just the beginning of a larger downside move.

Bear in mind, what followed these large range moves was at least two months of price testing the upper ranges of these candles
At the end of 2000 there was a 2-3 month test upwards to the 61.8% retracement

While in 2008 there was a 4-month period which saw a successful re-test of the low and a bounce beyond the 78% retrace, ultimately failing.