Using a weekly chart of the $INX, the cycles are blatant. Two big Regular Cycles, with an Inverted Cycle in between. Currently we're going through an Inverted Cycle.
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- The first Regular Cycle lasted for 409-bars and spent 276-bars (weeks) going up and 133-bars going down. I didn't actually plan this near perfect symmetry. I simply chose the bottom of the prior Inverted cycle that price experienced before going into our debt & leverage fueled price propulsion.
- The Inverted Cycle which followed lasted for 394-bars and spent 133-bars going down and 261-bars going up (amazing symmetry).
- Now, the Regular Cycle, which ended in May of 2008, had a span of 334-bars with 261 on the way up and a mere 73 on the way down.
- The Inverted Cycle we are now in contains 119-bars so far (slightly more than half of those bars going up following our last 73-bar down swing).
- The slope of our "trend" is definitely down.
Now, we know from my previous post, that a cycle is deemed complete when price closes outside of it's Cyclic Trend Line (CTL, refer to my previous post to understand how the CTL is measured and projected), like so:
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So, that's a little longer term perspective. Here's where the SPY sits as of Friday:
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Within this timeframe, price is in an Inverted Cycle and the PTT's are shown in red lines.
The slope of our trend is flat to slightly down (the past two Inverted & Regular Cycles have had highs and lows within a penny of each other). So, from here we would be looking for a test higher, while a close under a CTL would give us the start of our next Regular Cycle.
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