While visiting New Jersey for the last bit of December, I will be out of my routine and likely not be posting anything. This will give me some much needed time to reflect on how I can better improve my focus and performance going into the new year. Best wishes to all during the holiday season and for a happy and healthy new year.
Saturday, December 19, 2009
Away for a while
While visiting New Jersey for the last bit of December, I will be out of my routine and likely not be posting anything. This will give me some much needed time to reflect on how I can better improve my focus and performance going into the new year. Best wishes to all during the holiday season and for a happy and healthy new year.
Wednesday, December 16, 2009
setups today
Two nice trades today in POT and RIMM.
POT played Pong all day within a $1 range. The setup I took was around 11 am where price bounced and retraced off of $118 (those are nice 61.8% retracements that end up looking like inverted H&S patterns, some call it a "Phoenix"). There was also a nice one towards the close, where price retraced a little more steeply than the other, but was good above $118.5. This range was very tradable today, with shorts/longs based on the bollinger bands and the whole & 50-cent increments. I need to recognize this behavior earlier on in the session.
RIMM has a $65 pivot
...and as such, price consolidated narrowly under this level this morning. The first move to $65 was a fakeout and looked to be breaking down from an ascending triangle (a measured move from which would target the lows of the day). Being that price didn't give up much ground from the apparent breakdown, it was still looking bullish. My entry was $64.89 and my target was $65.75 (based on previous resistance) and I actually held the entire way.
Unfortunately I didn't short the double top back down to $65, and beyond.
POT played Pong all day within a $1 range. The setup I took was around 11 am where price bounced and retraced off of $118 (those are nice 61.8% retracements that end up looking like inverted H&S patterns, some call it a "Phoenix"). There was also a nice one towards the close, where price retraced a little more steeply than the other, but was good above $118.5. This range was very tradable today, with shorts/longs based on the bollinger bands and the whole & 50-cent increments. I need to recognize this behavior earlier on in the session.
RIMM has a $65 pivot
...and as such, price consolidated narrowly under this level this morning. The first move to $65 was a fakeout and looked to be breaking down from an ascending triangle (a measured move from which would target the lows of the day). Being that price didn't give up much ground from the apparent breakdown, it was still looking bullish. My entry was $64.89 and my target was $65.75 (based on previous resistance) and I actually held the entire way.
Unfortunately I didn't short the double top back down to $65, and beyond.
curious
Earlier today the Time & Sales on the SPY flashed three orders (just after 2p.m.) that totaled 10-million shares that were well below the market ($111.2854). The condition that this registers reads as "Filtered from Chart" and can mean at least two things as I understand it; bad ticks, resulting from an error in the data feed's algorithm, or a spread trade being transacted.
Now, I'm assuming this must be an error in the data that's been filtered out, as the volume being filtered is way beyond the total shares registered at the times transacted. However, were did the SPY find support today? 111.28 of course! So, what gives?
Now, I'm assuming this must be an error in the data that's been filtered out, as the volume being filtered is way beyond the total shares registered at the times transacted. However, were did the SPY find support today? 111.28 of course! So, what gives?
Monday, December 14, 2009
gap, gap, and away!
Where is this thing going, why, and how? (aside from the obvious; up, because it wants to, and for no "good" reason).
very little selling these last 3 gap-up sessions. The previous 3 gap-up sessions were sold pretty strongly.
very little selling these last 3 gap-up sessions. The previous 3 gap-up sessions were sold pretty strongly.
Thursday, December 10, 2009
Fib resistance/support
The 78.6% retracement strikes again!
The SPY met with resistance on the gap up this morning (as measured between the most recent swing high to low). Momentum registered higher on a lower price swing (Slingshot setup), but we didn't get much movement today.
AIG sold off this morning from the $29.50 level. Funny thing is, it closed right on top of the 78.6% retracement level (as measured between the previous impulse swing move and the highs at the bounce). Also, price barely measured a negative momentum reading (bullish divergence). We could very well see a snap-back in price, or perhaps a buyable gap down if that's the case in the morning.
The SPY met with resistance on the gap up this morning (as measured between the most recent swing high to low). Momentum registered higher on a lower price swing (Slingshot setup), but we didn't get much movement today.
AIG sold off this morning from the $29.50 level. Funny thing is, it closed right on top of the 78.6% retracement level (as measured between the previous impulse swing move and the highs at the bounce). Also, price barely measured a negative momentum reading (bullish divergence). We could very well see a snap-back in price, or perhaps a buyable gap down if that's the case in the morning.
Wednesday, December 9, 2009
AIG bounce
AIG pulled back from a precipice today:
Check out my previous post on AIG for some interesting charts regarding the underlying support pivot.
Currently we're basing at this $29.50 61.8% retracement level.
Waiting to see how strong the bounce is off of $29.50 today. The previous bounce wasn't as strong as those previous.
Check out my previous post on AIG for some interesting charts regarding the underlying support pivot.Currently we're basing at this $29.50 61.8% retracement level.
Waiting to see how strong the bounce is off of $29.50 today. The previous bounce wasn't as strong as those previous.
steep retracements
The 78.6% Fib. retracement held as SPY support today. The chart below measures the distance between the most recent swing low (the "Dubai gap") and swing high (tested on 12/04). This level also happened to be a confluence level from a 100% Fib. Extension (measured from the 12/04 high and corrective move low and projected off of the following corrective move highs). On top of it all, today's test of the lows happened on a momentum divergence.
Just another bounce on range-bound support. The last three times we bounced from this level we put in a new high on the very next day! Tomorrow should give us a reasonable clue to determine the "pace" of buying interest.
Here's another look at the 78.6% retracement level from this morning in the SPY on a fast time frame. As measured between their most recent swing highs to lows in the opening hour:
And then, when price was testing the lows of the day price made two steep retracements and turned around on strong volume (not shown):
SPY with Up/Down Volume today:
Just another bounce on range-bound support. The last three times we bounced from this level we put in a new high on the very next day! Tomorrow should give us a reasonable clue to determine the "pace" of buying interest.
Here's another look at the 78.6% retracement level from this morning in the SPY on a fast time frame. As measured between their most recent swing highs to lows in the opening hour:
And then, when price was testing the lows of the day price made two steep retracements and turned around on strong volume (not shown):
SPY with Up/Down Volume today:
Tuesday, December 8, 2009
will it bounce?
XLE, a test of support? due for a bounce?
Price is testing it's lower B.band on (so far) a higher low in momentum
while price has dropped into a falling wedge
A gap down tomorrow might be buyable
Price is testing it's lower B.band on (so far) a higher low in momentum
while price has dropped into a falling wedge
A gap down tomorrow might be buyable
stuck
Quite a range we have here. Today the SPY bounced at the previous week's open:
SPY broke down from an ascending wedge this morning:
The Financials (XLF) look to be sitting on a precipice here, bounce or drop?
And while the Energy sector (XLE) is setting up in a bullish wolfe wave you can also argue that it just broke down from a Head & Shoulders pattern, in which case a measured move could bring it back down to the $50 area. Perhaps this sector will depend largely on the direction of the dollar.
The U.S. Dollar Index found support at the 78.6% fib retracement
SPY broke down from an ascending wedge this morning:
The Financials (XLF) look to be sitting on a precipice here, bounce or drop?
And while the Energy sector (XLE) is setting up in a bullish wolfe wave you can also argue that it just broke down from a Head & Shoulders pattern, in which case a measured move could bring it back down to the $50 area. Perhaps this sector will depend largely on the direction of the dollar.
The U.S. Dollar Index found support at the 78.6% fib retracement
Monday, December 7, 2009
also...
....perhaps an Inverted Head & Shoulders pattern on the IWM (measured move included)? The other option being the bearish wolfe wave scenario.
patterns
Price is certainly respecting levels here:
Here are some patterns I see:
Inverted Roof on the DIA (similar on the Q's), a measured move would put price back to the previous swing lows:
Previously the Dow Jones Transportation Index (IYT here as a proxy) set up a bullish wolfe wave. However, it now looks to have formed a contrary wave with a potential target to at least $68.
IWM has a similar bearish wolfe wave structure at the moment
Speaking of Wolfe Waves, the last hour in the SPY saw a bearish wolfe wave take shape:
Although this bullish scenario is still in play for the SPY:
Here are some patterns I see:Inverted Roof on the DIA (similar on the Q's), a measured move would put price back to the previous swing lows:
Previously the Dow Jones Transportation Index (IYT here as a proxy) set up a bullish wolfe wave. However, it now looks to have formed a contrary wave with a potential target to at least $68.
IWM has a similar bearish wolfe wave structure at the moment
Speaking of Wolfe Waves, the last hour in the SPY saw a bearish wolfe wave take shape:
Although this bullish scenario is still in play for the SPY:
Friday, December 4, 2009
SPY 12_04
Another "Spike and Ledge" setup this morning as the SPY registered another minimal new high.
The SPY did put in some relatively strong volume today (270+million shares, 24-days since we last saw this) and closed the week with both a higher high and higher close.
Funny thing about that volume. A strong order came in right around the previous day's close to support this afternoon's downward swing.
Intra-day we saw some nice equal moves hitting their Fib. Extension targets.
And finally, the SPY looks to be in a bullish Wolfe Wave. A breakdown and I'll look for a contrary wave (based off of 11/9 as the 1-point). A push higher and the "sweet spot" has an awkwardly wide range.
Speaking of Wolfe Waves, take a look at the recent activity in the U.S. Dollar Index:
The SPY did put in some relatively strong volume today (270+million shares, 24-days since we last saw this) and closed the week with both a higher high and higher close.
Funny thing about that volume. A strong order came in right around the previous day's close to support this afternoon's downward swing.
Intra-day we saw some nice equal moves hitting their Fib. Extension targets.
And finally, the SPY looks to be in a bullish Wolfe Wave. A breakdown and I'll look for a contrary wave (based off of 11/9 as the 1-point). A push higher and the "sweet spot" has an awkwardly wide range.
Speaking of Wolfe Waves, take a look at the recent activity in the U.S. Dollar Index:
Thursday, December 3, 2009
Fib Levels
SPY broke down in a dramatic way late in the day (finally).
It came to rest right in the 78.6% retracement level, as measured from the close on 11/30 (61.8% if measured from the swing low of that day).
I traded AIG short this afternoon as it broke down from it's $30.50 base.
I'm still looking for a climactic move down in this name to test recent lows. Next level of support is the $29 level as mentioned in a previous post.
It came to rest right in the 78.6% retracement level, as measured from the close on 11/30 (61.8% if measured from the swing low of that day).
I traded AIG short this afternoon as it broke down from it's $30.50 base.
I'm still looking for a climactic move down in this name to test recent lows. Next level of support is the $29 level as mentioned in a previous post.
Wednesday, December 2, 2009
snap-back trade
I traded AIG short this morning after it snapped back to test the previous day's range.
Some interesting Fibonacci levels provided interesting pivots for the day's trading.
The following chart is a bit crowded, but I tried to clean it up by taking out all Fib. levels that didn't have any bearing on this example.
The 3 Fibonacci measurements are based on 3 time frames in a way:
- the larger time frame; It's important to see where the current price is trading relative to the previous day's range. So, I put a Fib. between the previous day's high and low. Going into today we want to see what levels are acting as Support/Resistance. In this case, the 50% retracement holds on the open (and later at the lows). Provided a target as well.
- the intermediate time frame; Measured between the Previous day's swing high and the opening low. The upward test at the open failed the 78.6%, giving us a lower high. Look for weakness of consolidation before testing those highs again.
- the Shorter time frame; Measured between the opening low and high extremes. Not entirely necessary in this case, but it's fun to check for confluence levels. In this case price held above this 78.6% level while barely testing the higher time frames 50% level.
Anyway; the arrow down is entry short, arrow up is exit, horizontal line is entry price, with a stop $0.25 above.
Going into tomorrow we should look to see how price tests today's highs. A test of $32 wouldn't be out of the question, but it looks pretty weak right here. $30.50 provided support these past two days, and wile price bounced off this level yesterday into the open, when tested again it had a much weaker bounce. 
On the daily, price consolidated into a 3-bar triangle (lower high than the previous two highs and a lower low than the previous two lows). This pattern tends to respond in a similar way to the nr7 "coiled spring." For further support on the downside check out my previous post on the matter.
Some interesting Fibonacci levels provided interesting pivots for the day's trading.
The following chart is a bit crowded, but I tried to clean it up by taking out all Fib. levels that didn't have any bearing on this example.
The 3 Fibonacci measurements are based on 3 time frames in a way:
- the larger time frame; It's important to see where the current price is trading relative to the previous day's range. So, I put a Fib. between the previous day's high and low. Going into today we want to see what levels are acting as Support/Resistance. In this case, the 50% retracement holds on the open (and later at the lows). Provided a target as well.
- the intermediate time frame; Measured between the Previous day's swing high and the opening low. The upward test at the open failed the 78.6%, giving us a lower high. Look for weakness of consolidation before testing those highs again.
- the Shorter time frame; Measured between the opening low and high extremes. Not entirely necessary in this case, but it's fun to check for confluence levels. In this case price held above this 78.6% level while barely testing the higher time frames 50% level.
Anyway; the arrow down is entry short, arrow up is exit, horizontal line is entry price, with a stop $0.25 above.
Going into tomorrow we should look to see how price tests today's highs. A test of $32 wouldn't be out of the question, but it looks pretty weak right here. $30.50 provided support these past two days, and wile price bounced off this level yesterday into the open, when tested again it had a much weaker bounce. 
On the daily, price consolidated into a 3-bar triangle (lower high than the previous two highs and a lower low than the previous two lows). This pattern tends to respond in a similar way to the nr7 "coiled spring." For further support on the downside check out my previous post on the matter.
Spike & Ledge
SPY formed a "Spike & Ledge" pattern this morning on a test of new 52-week highs.
The pattern was coined in Linda Raschke's book Street Smarts, below are links to other articles relating to this climax pattern. Price set up perfectly on top of the PDH before flagging and selling off.
http://www.scribd.com/doc/2532983/Break-Out-Strategy (page 12)
http://www.trading-naked.com/library/raschke-linda%20raschke%20-%20keeps%20up%20the%20pace.pdf (page 5)
http://www.lbrgroup.com/index.asp?page=DailyCharts&date=2005-12-29
The pattern was coined in Linda Raschke's book Street Smarts, below are links to other articles relating to this climax pattern. Price set up perfectly on top of the PDH before flagging and selling off.
http://www.scribd.com/doc/2532983/Break-Out-Strategy (page 12)
http://www.trading-naked.com/library/raschke-linda%20raschke%20-%20keeps%20up%20the%20pace.pdf (page 5)
http://www.lbrgroup.com/index.asp?page=DailyCharts&date=2005-12-29
Tuesday, December 1, 2009
AIG range
Looking at AIG we see price approaching a potential support level ($25) after an epic fail:
and ABC "correction"
and in the most recent year, price bounced and put in a mid-summer higher low:
And more recently, looks to be in it's 3rd push down:
in these past two days price broke down from the $33 level
and today retraced steeply (nearly 78.6% since the close last Friday):
by the close today, price looked to have put in a bear flag. Watching $29 support level and possibly a breakdown from there (Support, becomes Resistance, becomes Support, becomes Resistance!):
and ABC "correction"
and in the most recent year, price bounced and put in a mid-summer higher low:
And more recently, looks to be in it's 3rd push down:
in these past two days price broke down from the $33 level
and today retraced steeply (nearly 78.6% since the close last Friday):
by the close today, price looked to have put in a bear flag. Watching $29 support level and possibly a breakdown from there (Support, becomes Resistance, becomes Support, becomes Resistance!):
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)