end, or beginning, of a trend?

We've certainly been in rally mode for nearly a month now. What should transpire from here is figuring out whether or not this is the beginning of future strength or merely a counter-trend move that will soon exhaust itself. Looking at the Daily SPY chart I wanted to highlight what has happened over the course of the last year.
Looking at the ADX for this market we can clearly see what has followed periods of low volatility (indicated by an ADX less than 20). Currently the SPY ADX is below 20, and that's not to say there can't be more upside, but it's curious because a low ADX reading is something that should give us warning of an impending volatile move or trend (in either direction), as volatility contraction precedes expansion.Taking it even further, here we are from Jan. '07 through March '08:
Looking at an hourly chart of the SPY, we gapped up and found resistance at a previous congestion area around the $84.50 area.As this rally threatened a breach of our regression channel, price has recovered, though found resistance at the midline todaySure we have one more day left in this week, but here's where we stand as of today on the S&P500 weekly chart, very much a critical point.