thu 05_08

Just not much going on in the market indexes.  Very range bound.
SPY - hit secondary target to the penny

 DIA - reached primary target

 IWM - still breaking lower

QQQ - messy

XLF - coiling

 IYT - does it stay above $137 and base under $139?

GC update

Not going to hide the fact that the long setup in GC didn't play out.  A red fast line going forward would be a short worth considering.

Perhaps keeping watch on the faster (4H) time frame could have kept this position out of trouble.

Wed 05_07

SPY - Daily showing decent strength in criteria 1.

 DIA - not an entry I would like to have taken on the hourly

 IWM - may see some mean reversion

 QQQ - just completely sideways irregardless of the selling

 XLF - again, not a trade i would like to take on the hourly, would prefer to see a pullback in the fast line.  Being that today trapped some shorts from yesterday's breakdown it could squeeze further tomorrow.

 IYT - first losing trade all month.  Looks like a cup and handle pattern playing out

Tue 05_06

SPY - stopped out on the long, made some back on the short

DIA-mentioned yesterday that it wasn't worth a long entry.  A short entry reached primary target

QQQ -  long entry didn't play out, but the short entry did

IWM - being that none of the long entries were playing out it should have acted as a warning.  The short entry nearly achieved it's seconday target

IYT - is in the middle of a short entry

XLF - reached a primary target (picture perfect 4d-4c continuation setup on the hourly)

EURUSD finally moved out of it's sideways consolidation

ES primary target of 1850

Mon 05_05

SPY - on a buy signal.  Some conflicting indications on the higher time frame though.  Trend is still strong.

DIA - daily time frame looks a bit weak and the hourly setup is one in which I would pass on

QQQ- on a buy signal

IWM  is getting beaten up on long entries.  Price now consolidating through time rather than price.

IYT - can go either way.  The daily looks a bit weak, but the hourly still flagging.

XLF- nothing here yet

free charts

Just a quick outline of setting up the charts you see in this blog on a free website.
Go over to www.freestockcharts.com and set up the price chart however you like.  To get you to what you see below, I selected "View" - Show Full Screen Chart.
Then I selected (on the chart) "Settings" - "Back Color" to White
Also under "Settings" - Plot Style - Candlestick.  "Color Based on" - Open vs. Close (or whatever you prefer) and both "Up Bars" and "Down Bars" selected as "Filled"

Then click "Add Indicator" and select 'MACD'.

You're then going to "Edit" from the drop-down options

Change the following:
"Plot Style" -> Histogram
Change the "Plot Color" if you would like
Select "Negative Value Color" (Optional)
Change "Short" to 3
Change "Long" to 10
For "Average Type" select "Simple"
You're left with the following:

Next Change the Slow Line.  Select the drop-box next to "Exp Moving Average 9" and Edit
Change "Period" to 16
"Average Type" to Simple
Increase Line width to it's fullest
You're left with the following

This gives you the basic 3/10macd

If you would like to add a time frame three times higher (as your "traded" time frame) you would do that one first (as outlined above) and use the settings of  6, 27, 48.
Add some Moving Averages and you're left with the following chart (I used the 20- & 50-SMA, alternatively, to reflect the higher traded time frame, you could use a 60- 150-MA):

The chart above is a Daily chart.  But it is actually your "trigger" chart.  The longer length macd (top most indicator) reflects what the 3/10macd looks like on a time frame that is three times (3x) slower, which would be your "traded" time frame.  You would then use the lower most 3/10macd as the trigger for your setups.

weekly

update on weekly charts
SPY and DIA have triggered a potential long entry, keeping in mind that the traded time frame (upper macd) has a Fast Line < Slow Line and therefore warrants caution for such an entry.

IWM and QQQ haven't triggered for these time frames

update

An update on the Gold post from earlier in the week.
As suspected, the fast line on the daily 3/10macd did trigger long, but the next day saw a tick down with a marginal loss.

However, I did mention to watch a faster time frame (4H) for a better setup that may come following the fast line and slow line orienting bullish on that time frame.  We never did get a bullish orientation, instead we saw a few potential short entries materialize.

End of Month

SPY - The Daily and the hourly both ticked up to trigger a long entry.  These can be sketchy and have potential to roll over.  So if there is no momentum follow-through tomorrow I would look to get out.

DIA

IWM - I like the 3d criteria setup on the hourly, but again, if there is a lack of follow-through momentum tomorrow I would be cautious.

QQQ-

XLF - seems like it is at an inflection point

IYT -

Gold Potential

The weekly (below, left) holding 1280 off of a double-bottom, while the daily is trying to regain 1305 off of a double-bottom.
The daily may end up triggering a buy entry with the fast line turning positive (tomorrow?).

While looking at the continuous 4H it may be a better idea to watch this time frame for when the 3/10macd orients back to bullish (FL>SL), 1305 being a key resistance.

whippy

Some whippy behavior in the market today.
SPY - may be setting up a long entry for tomorrow (65m fast line going green).

DIA - similar story as SPY

QQQ - stopped-out short entry today (unless you kept a stop above the pivot high i suppose)

IWM - similar set-up to the QQQ but a but less of a loss (due to the 65min fast line ticking up while the higher time frame has a FL<SL orientation).

IYT - the reason for not shorting this set-up mostly has to do with the previous strength.

XLF - the one short that worked!

 4H ES - quite a swift reversal bar.  This is what can happen when you short a 4c-4d continuation (on the faster "trigger" time frame) when the FL > SL.

 EURUSD - stuck in a crummy range, leading to more stop-outs.  Notice how the traded time frame 3/10macd (top indicator) kind of goes flat, as compared to previous, larger, momentum readings.  Indicative of an environment that can prove difficult with these setups and within such a tight range.