Friday OpEx 1_17

today's ES

A key for the above (5-min) chart to define the horizontal lines and dots. For further explanation, see this link:

Fri 01_17

This is why it can be difficult being long when the fast line is less than the slow line

 Could be seeing a squeeze on both sides of the trade on the QQQ.  Squeezed shorts out on Tuesday and now testing the hands of long positions, but for now it seems like a buyable pullback after previous momentum.

Wed 01_15

Most index ETFs reached at least their primary targets as we got a gap and go scenario on today's open

The next concern we would be looking for is if the hourly 3/10macd has a fast line/slow line cross which would be indicative of a pullback from these highs.

DIA played catch-up and achieved a 2R target.   Will be interesting to see if it breaks out from this channel or is held within

Interesting to note that the daily fast line is still under the slow line so we'll need further upside range expansion to change this

CL

Crude update coming off of the 4-hr 3d criteria setup.  So far achieving 2R target

Tue. 1_14

Today was a good example of why to scale out of a position once targets are met, otherwise you're likely to have covered today (from yesterday's short) at a scratch.
At this point, though we got what could be considered a trigger (in anticipation of the daily 3/10macd fast line going positive), it may be best to wait for a pullback.  However, a gap and go move could be likely as well.

The DIA really lagging here

Bit of a sell divergence across the board here.  May be best to wait for a pullback, but can also entertain a gap and go move.

We've seen this SPY move before, back on Nov.11, here is how it played out

Mon 1_13

Long triggers turned into losses, however, you were able to recoup the losses and then some.

Dow Symmetry

Interesting symmetry on the Dow monthly chart.
The 1994-2002 'Regular Cycle' of 96-bars was only 2-bars (months) shy of perfect symmentry when compared to the 2000-2007 'Inverted Cycle'.  The current (2007 to now) Inverted Cycle is 74-months and counting, in comparison to the 2002-2009 Regular Cycle of 78 bars we're getting pretty close to a symmetrical comparison.

As an aside, the fuchsia parallel in the chart above is the 'Cyclic Trend Line' (CTL), a designation which, when crossed, is supposed to mark the end of one cycle and the beginning of the next.  Here (bleow) is where previous CTL's would have been placed.  The breakouts from a down trend happening much cleaner and faster than the choppy breaks occuring in a down trend (replete with throwbacks).

GC

Gold finally hit the primary price target today 1247.90.  Secondary target being 1270.60 with breakeven stops for any remainder positions.

messy

A very messy week with not very wide price discovery.  Here are some updates on "triggers", bearing in mind that the higher time frame (daily) has a fast line < slow line, so without momentum to confirm our bias entries are a bit riskier.
DIA - could have considered a short entry based on the first hourly candle (and 3/10macd setup) but I would have exited when the hourly FL/SL crossed, giving you a $0.05 loss.

QQQ had a trigger entry on the close off of a buy divergence, target near the YTD highs.

IWM - was in the lead today.  Long entry for consideration once the FL/SL crossed.

SPY - actually made some progress toward it's target.

thu. 01_09

An hour before tomorrow's open is the Employment report, which may give us the needed jolt to move this market SOMEWHERE, as we've done nothing but go sideways all year so far.
The SPY may have had a trigger entry, but being that both the daily and hourly have a fast line less than the slow line it's a bit more risky.  The previous long trigger amounted to nothing (a scratch).

Similar situation with IWM.  The fast line (hourly) has turned positive, but is still under the slow line and lacking momentum

QQQ had a better performing week (technically speaking) and it seems the reverse divergence on the daily has already played itself out.  Would be waiting on the hourly to turn positive and/or see a fast line/slow line crossover

DIA - within a channel/flag and looks like it could go either way.

CL

Figured I would include a chart of CL that is similar to the one of GC posted previously (roughly a 4-hour continuous time frame).

Gold

Because of the "flash crash" in GC yesterday, figured I would update the chart since there was a daily buy signal a few days ago.  Below is a (roughly) 4-hour continuous chart of Gold.  The most recent entry here being just before the new year.  A warning sign for me when in a long position is when the faster time frame (trigger chart) sees the fast line go under the slow line, which it did here on the bar just before the selling hit.

By the way, in the chart above, the first subset indicator is a reflection of the 3/10-macd on a time frame which is 3x higher (slower), while the bottom indicator is the 3/10macd for this time frame.

Dollar

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) looks to be setting up a 3d criteria buy entry on the daily.  This would be an entry in anticipation of the weekly setting up the very same setup.  Primary resistance is the 81.30 area

GC

Gold posted another Daily entry yesterday.  This "trigger" would be a play on the higher time frame's (weekly) buy divergence/double-bottom.  It is still very sketchy being that the overall trend is strongly bearish.  1268 being the target objective, though 1252 may see resistance.

New Year's Eve

Quite the end of day/year ramp in the SPY today.  Came within $0.03 of the 2R target.

IWM still floating around it's 3R target

DIA - had a breakout move on the close, 3R target could be realized by end of week

QQQ - similar to DIA.  Breaking out of a cup&handle

Well, if you're reading this, hope you have a fun and safe New Years eve and a Happy and Prosperous 2014!!

Thu 12_26

IWM - obtained 3R and looking like a reversal bar on the daily.

QQQ - basing under the 2R target

DIA - within range of 2R target

SPY - $1 shy so far of 2R $184.71

Tue

Just an update from previous post.
IWM - within $0.05 so far of 3R.  Worth noting that the daily registered a higher momentum high on higher price highs.  Pullbacks are still a buy.

SPY- hit the 1R as measured from the trigger bar's Close to previous bar's swing low.

DIA - riding the channel

updated move

An update of the most recent triggered long entries.

 SPY - With such a wide range momentum bar measuring the target is tough.  Either you put your stop at the trigger bar's Open ($2.18) or the previous bar's low.

IWM- had a much better structure (bull flag).

 DIA- similar to the SPYwide rage bar.

QQQ