cont.

Looks like Monday should bring some resolution.
Below $168.75, Above $170, possibly $169.75 if it shows strength
"D" time frame can go either way, "C" time frame can go either way (though a Head & Shoulders developed, measured move to about $166.30), "B" time frame I would consider a sell signal trigger (down arrow) with a stop at $170.20ish.  The  "A" time frame, it has had opportunity but no committment.  Three red doji candles on the 20-day MA don't look all too strong.  You also have to consider the fact that whenever the SPY has a problem with resistance it has often times had a gap to, or above, that resistance.  Just saying that a gap up momentum move wouldn't surprise me, neither would decent selling.

fri 08/09

A key for the above (5-min) chart to define the horizontal lines and dots.  For further explanation, see this link:  

Arrows on higher time frame indicate anticipatory trades that are entered using the faster time frame.

ES with globex

updated

Update from yesterday's post.  Things played out on the faster time frames.  If we're looking for the Daily 3/10macd fast line to tick up and begin the next buying wave it is then imperative now that the 130min chart (B)  follow through tomorrow, if it moves back down (the "Z" in an 'XYZ' wave) then we could be looking to trade lower.  It seems like we'll know which direction momentum will go on tomorrow's Open.

thu. 08_08

A key for the above (5-min) chart to define the horizontal lines and dots.  For further explanation, see this link:  

Arrows on higher time frame indicate anticipatory trades that are entered using the faster time frame.

ES with globex

Wed. 08_07

A key for the above (5-min) chart to define the horizontal lines and dots.  For further explanation, see this link:  

Arrows on higher time frame indicate anticipatory trades that are entered using the faster time frame.

ES with Globex range

note

Just a note on how I anticipate the setups I look for.  The benefit of using multiple time frames (in a top-down approach) is that it can also act as a timing mechanism so that you don't rashly jump in too soon.
So, I'll break it down using the current SPY and the Daily time frame as our focus.
A. Is the Daily chart with the 3/10macd.  IF we are anticipating the fast line to tick up (indicating further upside) we can look at the faster time frames for clues as to when to possible act on a buy setup.
B. Is a 130min chart, simply because you can divide the 390-minutes in the Regular Trading Hours evenly, so that you end  up with three 130-minute bars per day.  You can simply go to an hourly (65min) chart if that is your preference.
C.  A 39-min chart because, again, it divides evenly and is the closest we can get to one-third of 130minutes.
D. A 15-min chart, though you can use a 13-min chart to make it precisely one-third of the 39-min chart, but I prefer 15.

So, the anticipation is for the fast line to tick up on "A".
You would like to see the fast line turn positive on "B", which would mean you would like to see
the fast line turn positive (green), pull back, then tick positive again on "C", which would mean
the 3/10macd on the 15min should begin working itself in a positive orientation, for starters getting the slow line back to positive.
Described above is a potential sequence, not necessarily exactly how it will play out.  For example, in chart "C", rather then get a pullback in the fast line in could just continue pressing higher until it pulls the slow line positive.
As far as anticipating the fast line in "A" to go negative, we would be looking for a flag or channel to form on "B" and we might see the 130min fast line pull higher and then tick back down (the reverse of the bullish example given in "C").  We would also probably wait for the fast line on "C" to work off some oversold condition then cross back bearish with the Slow Line.

So, as time progresses I'll update this chart to see how it played out.

Tue. 08/06

A key for the above (5-min) chart to define the horizontal lines and dots.  For further explanation, see this link:  

Arrows on higher time frame indicate anticipatory trades that are entered using the faster time frame.

ES with globex

Daily/Hourly below.  Interesting that the Daily fast line ticked down (2b criteria short setup should price weaken and close below $168).  Being that price is still above the 20-day MA, however, gives buyers an edge for the time being.  Still remaining is the 7/31 gap fill ($168.71. which coincides with the 20-day MA), so should we attempt to fill this area tomorrow we have to gauge buying reaction.   Provided, of course, that we don't gap above $170 on tomorrow's Open.

Fri. 08_02

 A key for the above (5-min) chart to define the horizontal lines and dots.  For further explanation, see this link:  

Arrows on higher time frame indicate anticipatory trades that are entered using the faster time frame.

Weekly/Daily below:  For the month of July we were coming out of the 2c-2d criteria setup (trend intact and strong).  Typically looking for a 3d criteria setup on the faster (Daily, below right), but such a setup didn't come.  After around the 3rd of 4th green fast line tick-up, which should register as a break-out price bar.

Important at this point for the daily fast-line/slow-line to cross and follow-through with the momentum.  

Thu 08_1

Resistance overhead?  Just gap over it!

 A key for the above (5-min) chart to define the horizontal lines and dots.  For further explanation, see this link:  

Arrows on higher time frame indicate anticipatory trades that are entered using the faster time frame.

ES_with globex;  best entry was 10-min prior to Open; arrows indicating potential entries (no exit signals are indicated)

HIgher time frame; Daily (below, right) had 2c-2d criteria, entry was 3d-3a criteria setup on faster time frame

 A key for the above (5-min) chart to define the horizontal lines and dots.  For further explanation, see this link:  

Arrows on higher time frame indicate anticipatory trades that are entered using the faster time frame.

Higher time frame, no resolution, but potential weakness in today's close

Tue. 07_30

choppy

 A key for the above (5-min) chart to define the horizontal lines and dots.  For further explanation, see this link:  

Arrows on higher time frame indicate anticipatory trades that are entered using the faster time frame.

Mon 07_29

 A key for the above (5-min) chart to define the horizontal lines and dots.  For further explanation, see this link:  

Arrows on higher time frame indicate anticipatory trades that are entered using the faster time frame.

65-min (below, left) oscillator coiling. Daily seems to need time to digest and have the fast line and slow line catch up to one another (or further testing lower, fast line going negative).

Fri. 07_26

 A key for the above (5-min) chart to define the horizontal lines and dots.  For further explanation, see this link:  

Arrows on higher time frame indicate anticipatory trades that are entered using the faster time frame.

Higher time frame SPY

ES with globex

thu. 07_18

As mentioned in my last post:

 and

Here's how it played out; with the 2c-2d criteria we're looking to buy the 3d criteria on the faster time frame

The initial buy was on the close of the 16th.  Additional up-arrows (on the 17th) represented potential adding entries.

July 11

Been a while since posting.  The time invested isn't returning enough interest to really motivate me to continue on a regular basis.  I'll probably just throw some charts up here and there when I can.
Here's where we stand on the SPY.  Narrow daily ranges vaporizing higher.  We either break out further or return to test a previous pivot, that's how this game works.  Either we follow price breaks higher or we follow the ensuing pullback and look to buy the next 2c-2d criteria on the 3/10macd (65-min time frame)

Previous higher time frame 2c-2d setups (3d faster time frame entry trigger)
From June 28 (First shaded region on the left 65m chart)

From July 2/3

From July 10/11 - cute how price broke out after FOMC minutes, came back to sweep up the stops at the $164.70s pivot and then triggered long on the closing bar (at a cheaper price)

Mon 06_10

Nothing but consolidation of previous momentum

Breadth - mostly neutral all day

Higher time frames - Further pullback wouldn't be surprising, while a gap or move higher could lead to chasing (and stops being triggered)

ES with globex

Fri 06_07

Momentum day, though didn't have the same sort of Advance/Decline internals you typically see on an extreme advancing day.

Higher time frame - bulls need it to push through that $165 - $165.50 area

ES with globex - overnight range midpoint (also 50% retrace of previous day's close to today's Open) held on the opening retrace, Overnight high held as afternoon support.

Another look on multiple time frames