Just as in 2010 price has taken 52-days to go from a swing low to test a swing high....curious:
Friday, February 10, 2012
update
An update off of this post> http://toddstrade.blogspot.com/2012/02/this-has-all-happened-before.html
Just as in 2010 price has taken 52-days to go from a swing low to test a swing high....curious:
Just as in 2010 price has taken 52-days to go from a swing low to test a swing high....curious:
Thursday, February 9, 2012
To Watch
updated: The lower channel broke town for an extended test of support (which for now is holding). The anticipation at this point is for higher prices to be sold until a higher low or momentum divergence is established (looking for a 4d-4c continuation short setup from here) unless we get a V-bottom.
Potential 2b short setup on the ES. Keeping in mind that this is a 240-minute chart.
This 2b setup is also recognizable as 3-pushes to a high where we have 3 higher highs on waning momentum. Watch for a breakdown of the lower channel line for confirmation, but if the upper channel is broken with a higher momentum reading then up we go. Will update this chart as we progress.
Potential 2b short setup on the ES. Keeping in mind that this is a 240-minute chart.
This 2b setup is also recognizable as 3-pushes to a high where we have 3 higher highs on waning momentum. Watch for a breakdown of the lower channel line for confirmation, but if the upper channel is broken with a higher momentum reading then up we go. Will update this chart as we progress.
Thurs. 2_9
Some setups from today.
3d set up in FSLR coming into today - Sold WAY too soon (at the 100% projection) and missed the really strong secondary move, but there was a third opportunity later in the day.
NFLX set up the 3d going into the close yesterday and formed an inverse Head & shoulder pattern that consolidated into a tight triangle. First exit was taken at the supply level where the Fib. fan starts from (dash blue line), around $126.50, second exit around $126.2 when price failed to follow through beyond 126.5
BIDU - set up the 3d pattern yesterday (inverse H&S) and today found support above the previous day's resistance. Entry (first up arrow) wasn't so good, but I wasn't stopped out and a second entry was soon triggered (second up arrow). Exits were discretionary (strong closing 15-minute bars) as price was exploring a gap fill from 2/6
3d set up in FSLR coming into today - Sold WAY too soon (at the 100% projection) and missed the really strong secondary move, but there was a third opportunity later in the day.
NFLX set up the 3d going into the close yesterday and formed an inverse Head & shoulder pattern that consolidated into a tight triangle. First exit was taken at the supply level where the Fib. fan starts from (dash blue line), around $126.50, second exit around $126.2 when price failed to follow through beyond 126.5
BIDU - set up the 3d pattern yesterday (inverse H&S) and today found support above the previous day's resistance. Entry (first up arrow) wasn't so good, but I wasn't stopped out and a second entry was soon triggered (second up arrow). Exits were discretionary (strong closing 15-minute bars) as price was exploring a gap fill from 2/6
Wednesday, February 8, 2012
ES 3d
Two examples of the 3d setup in the ES these past two days (coming into the open) with two different results.
First, Tuesday morning
Then coming into this morning. Though the 50% projection was achieved any further follow-through was capped off by resistance. When the 3d setup rolls-over it's often a good idea to reverse the trade and anticipate a lower low.
First, Tuesday morning
Then coming into this morning. Though the 50% projection was achieved any further follow-through was capped off by resistance. When the 3d setup rolls-over it's often a good idea to reverse the trade and anticipate a lower low.
Wed. 2_8
An example of how the Advance/Decline and its interplay with its zero-line can be used as a reference point and potentially good risk:reward entry areas when used in conjunction with price support/resistance and the TICK.
Here we have two basic support levels (horizontal dash lines) along with vertical dash lines to highlight when the A/D-line pulls back to zero, whether from above or below. Price often seems to bounce (or fade) from this zero-line, until it doesn't, where it then breaks out. For example, we had a few bounces off of the zero-line coming into today, the fourth test flagged and broke down later finding support (price support as well) at the -200 line (mildly bearish) on a bullish divergence on the lows. Later in the day there were two fades off of the zero-line where price pulled back but didn't sell off, only to later break above zero on the third attempt.
Here we have two basic support levels (horizontal dash lines) along with vertical dash lines to highlight when the A/D-line pulls back to zero, whether from above or below. Price often seems to bounce (or fade) from this zero-line, until it doesn't, where it then breaks out. For example, we had a few bounces off of the zero-line coming into today, the fourth test flagged and broke down later finding support (price support as well) at the -200 line (mildly bearish) on a bullish divergence on the lows. Later in the day there were two fades off of the zero-line where price pulled back but didn't sell off, only to later break above zero on the third attempt.
Monday, February 6, 2012
Copper update
I posted a 240-min chart of Copper last week with the anticipation of the 3d setup occurring. Follow this link.
Here is how it played out.
And on split time frames
A break above 3.9460 could get interesting
Here is how it played out.
And on split time frames
A break above 3.9460 could get interesting
This has all happened before
Uncanny, though not surprising.
A look at the SPY from September through November of 2010 compared to now:
Proof that volume is not necessarily a required component for higher prices? Though there was higher volume in the 2010 period it just doesn't seem to matter at this point; shorts are learning their lesson and becoming more timid while long positions are not being liquidated.
The narrow drifting price range of 2010 then replicated itself (measured move?) going in to the beginning months of 2011. Again, volume on the selling but price drifts back to highs.
The volatile corrections have increased in volume and in the time it takes for price to stabilize.
The January-March 2010 period had a 30-day corrective cycle with 61-days between the bottom and the next sell-off (1:2 ratio).
The May-September 2010 period had a 97-day corrective period with 283-days between it's low and the next sell-off (1:3 ratio).
A look at the SPY from September through November of 2010 compared to now:
Proof that volume is not necessarily a required component for higher prices? Though there was higher volume in the 2010 period it just doesn't seem to matter at this point; shorts are learning their lesson and becoming more timid while long positions are not being liquidated.
The narrow drifting price range of 2010 then replicated itself (measured move?) going in to the beginning months of 2011. Again, volume on the selling but price drifts back to highs.
The volatile corrections have increased in volume and in the time it takes for price to stabilize.
The January-March 2010 period had a 30-day corrective cycle with 61-days between the bottom and the next sell-off (1:2 ratio).
The May-September 2010 period had a 97-day corrective period with 283-days between it's low and the next sell-off (1:3 ratio).
Friday, February 3, 2012
there ya have it
Following the NFP report this morning the ES has just now tagged the 100% projection (1339) off our original seed wave. As you can see in the previous posts, this seed wave projection comes off of the head-to-right shoulder (3d setup) from a few days ago. It also coincides with a 200% projection of our faster time frame (15-min) momentum wave.
Wednesday, February 1, 2012
HG 3d
A good example of the 3d setup in Copper today:
Price is pulling back after filling an open gap left back in September last year. The 2c criteria which is currently showing means that this pullback (and resulting reverse divergence) will be a buyable dip.
Perhaps watch for the 3d setup on this 240-min chart
Price is pulling back after filling an open gap left back in September last year. The 2c criteria which is currently showing means that this pullback (and resulting reverse divergence) will be a buyable dip.
Perhaps watch for the 3d setup on this 240-min chart
update 2
Final result of the ES charts posted last night and this morning. 1327 (previous break-down point) was key:
Daily: So far a lower high, while the 3/10macd looks to be forming a 2b short setup.
Daily: So far a lower high, while the 3/10macd looks to be forming a 2b short setup.
Tuesday, January 31, 2012
o/n ES
ES potential:
- Higher time frame showing an inverse head & shoulders pattern
- Faster time frame showing a bear flag
The faster time frame bear flag could still partially break down (as it appears to be doing now) and have the inverse H&S remain intact. Essentially, bullish above 1313.75 and bearish under 1300. The 240-min could be setting up the 3d criteria, It would be best for the 240-minute to hold/regain it's 50% Fib. retracement.
With that said, the 2c-2d criteria is showing on the daily. As mentioned before, the 2c-2d criteria on a higher time frame shows as a 3d (3-pushes to a low, inverse H&S, or double bottom) on a faster time frame (which is what the 240-minute is showing). Also, the next move higher should either set up a lower high short setup or a breakout to higher prices. Whichever direction it goes, the momentum should be the clue to our measured move.
- Higher time frame showing an inverse head & shoulders pattern
- Faster time frame showing a bear flag
The faster time frame bear flag could still partially break down (as it appears to be doing now) and have the inverse H&S remain intact. Essentially, bullish above 1313.75 and bearish under 1300. The 240-min could be setting up the 3d criteria, It would be best for the 240-minute to hold/regain it's 50% Fib. retracement.
With that said, the 2c-2d criteria is showing on the daily. As mentioned before, the 2c-2d criteria on a higher time frame shows as a 3d (3-pushes to a low, inverse H&S, or double bottom) on a faster time frame (which is what the 240-minute is showing). Also, the next move higher should either set up a lower high short setup or a breakout to higher prices. Whichever direction it goes, the momentum should be the clue to our measured move.
Tues. 1_31
Not much going on today.
GLD 2c-2d setup (Inverse H&S)
SINA end of day breakout of 2-day triangle. 1a setup. Actually held 1/4 position (covered 15-cents above entry) which was stupid in retrospect.
Didn't trade this AMZN setup, but was a good looking setup. I would refer to it as the 3d setup but it was 'technically' a 1d. Irregardless it had an inverse H&S pattern.
GLD 2c-2d setup (Inverse H&S)
SINA end of day breakout of 2-day triangle. 1a setup. Actually held 1/4 position (covered 15-cents above entry) which was stupid in retrospect.
Didn't trade this AMZN setup, but was a good looking setup. I would refer to it as the 3d setup but it was 'technically' a 1d. Irregardless it had an inverse H&S pattern.
Monday, January 30, 2012
Mon 1_30
3d setup in IBM this morning. There are two Fib. projections made; one off the opening low/high, the second off of a smaller wave before price broke out (I inadvertently covered up the smaller flag with my up-arrow).
The 100% projection of the smaller flag was $191.82 which was an intermediate resistance level from 1/26.
SINA 2c-2d setup. Notice the inverse H&S on the 5-minute chart. Half taken off at the 50% projection and the other half taken off above $71 (I had an order to get out at $71.50 but when it missed it by a few cents I just closed out the position).
NFLX 2c-2d setup. The two up-arrows on the 5-minute are not aligned. The up-arrow on the indicator was the trigger, but the up-arrow under price was my entry. The actual "trigger" candle was the one which comes after the up-arrow. Half taken off at the 50% projection, the other half below the 50% projection.
The 100% projection of the smaller flag was $191.82 which was an intermediate resistance level from 1/26.
SINA 2c-2d setup. Notice the inverse H&S on the 5-minute chart. Half taken off at the 50% projection and the other half taken off above $71 (I had an order to get out at $71.50 but when it missed it by a few cents I just closed out the position).
NFLX 2c-2d setup. The two up-arrows on the 5-minute are not aligned. The up-arrow on the indicator was the trigger, but the up-arrow under price was my entry. The actual "trigger" candle was the one which comes after the up-arrow. Half taken off at the 50% projection, the other half below the 50% projection.
Friday, January 27, 2012
fri 1_27
The SPY set up the 3d criteria while the trigger coincided with both a 3d criteria on the 5-min chart and a trend line break.
POT had a decent trend to it and price continued higher after it pulled back. Two entries with very small stops in place.
SINA was a heart-breaker. Position size was small and exits were way too soon. Trade was based on the 3d setup. First up-arrow long and sold at the highs of the day. Second up-arrow long and sold at around $64.80 (was shooting for $65.38 resistance but what I perceived as failure under $65.25 made me get out.
and of course here is what it did afterwards...uggh
POT had a decent trend to it and price continued higher after it pulled back. Two entries with very small stops in place.
SINA was a heart-breaker. Position size was small and exits were way too soon. Trade was based on the 3d setup. First up-arrow long and sold at the highs of the day. Second up-arrow long and sold at around $64.80 (was shooting for $65.38 resistance but what I perceived as failure under $65.25 made me get out.
Thursday, January 26, 2012
thurs 1_26
When the 2c-2d fails:
There comes a time when buying the dip in a trend doesn't work out. Today was such an example; where the 2c-2d buy setup turns into a 4c short setup.
Coming into 11:30 (CST) we had a 2c-2d criteria which was also a momentum buy divergence. We got a buy signal (following the 3d setup on the 5-min chart) but price failed at resistance and rolled over. This roll-over turned into a 4c short setup on the 15-min chart.
There comes a time when buying the dip in a trend doesn't work out. Today was such an example; where the 2c-2d buy setup turns into a 4c short setup.
Coming into 11:30 (CST) we had a 2c-2d criteria which was also a momentum buy divergence. We got a buy signal (following the 3d setup on the 5-min chart) but price failed at resistance and rolled over. This roll-over turned into a 4c short setup on the 15-min chart.
Wednesday, January 25, 2012
Wed. 1_25
NFLX set up the 3d criteria into the close yesterday, was looking for follow-through on the open for a quick trade.
I was watching the 2-min chart for this trade, with a target of the 100% Fib. projection which lined up with a resistance level. I wasn't filled at the $95.15 price so just covered after the doji.
Big day in gold today.
NEM posted a strong day today.
again, the 2-min provided cleaner entry
Finally, another example of the 2c-2d setup in the ES today. The Fib. fan (5min chart) provides good resistance (magenta) and target (blue) points. Again, the 2c-2d is a reverse divergence and is buyable following the 3-pushes to a low (or inverse Head & Shoulders, 3d setup) on the faster time frame:
I was watching the 2-min chart for this trade, with a target of the 100% Fib. projection which lined up with a resistance level. I wasn't filled at the $95.15 price so just covered after the doji.
Big day in gold today.
NEM posted a strong day today.
again, the 2-min provided cleaner entry
Finally, another example of the 2c-2d setup in the ES today. The Fib. fan (5min chart) provides good resistance (magenta) and target (blue) points. Again, the 2c-2d is a reverse divergence and is buyable following the 3-pushes to a low (or inverse Head & Shoulders, 3d setup) on the faster time frame:
Tuesday, January 24, 2012
missed it
Missed the entry in IBM this morning, but a good example of a strong trend continuation.
GMCR was a good 3d setup this morning
GMCR was a good 3d setup this morning
Monday, January 23, 2012
3d continuation
3d setup into the close on Friday, continuation into this morning's open.
This was followed by a 2c-2d setup in the afternoon
This was followed by a 2c-2d setup in the afternoon
2c in Crude
A good example of the 2c-2d setup in Crude Oil today.
Reverse divergence on the 15-min chart that sets up the buy entry on the 5-min chart with an inverse H&S pattern.
Reverse divergence on the 15-min chart that sets up the buy entry on the 5-min chart with an inverse H&S pattern.
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