Thu 02_20

A couple of potential long entries on the higher time frame, but with fairly small targets
QQQ only had a 15-cent target and the primary objective was achieved.  A realistic short trigger would occur if the hourly fast line rolls over and goes negative at this point (same goes for other three indexes as well).

 IWM -  primary target was above previous highs, price back off 5-cents ahead of those highs.

 SPY - barely went anywhere for the last three hours of the day.  Some back-and-fill between $185 and $181 could set up an inverse H&S going into March.

 DIA - was the one index which lost ground following the long trigger.

IYT - watching for the potential for a 3d criteria long entry set up on the daily.  Today's hourly target fell short of the $130.48 target.  Watching for a pullback in the hourly time frame 3/10macd fast line and a continuation (tick back up in the fast line, which would be a 3d criteria setup on both time frames) for a long entry that would set up the daily 3d criteria follow-through.  Failing $128 would likely invalidate the setup.  May not set up in either (for a long OR a short if it rolls over) until early next week.

XLF - could be telling.  If the Daily fast line goes negative things could get messy.  Anticipating that occurrrence would be the hourly time frame 3/10macd fast line ticking down from here (4c continuation).

pullback

The first red close in the QQQ since Feb. 3rd and the first close < previous day's close in the IWM for the past nine sessions.
Only two of the four main indexes that registered a higher time frame sell signal and those were the DIA and SPY (the setup being a rise in the fast line while remaining under the slow line and then turning negative).  The SPY nearly achieving the primary target already.

Considering prior strength this negative fast line reading is viewed as a reverse divergence (higher price highs on lower momentum lows) and as such we would be looking for the buyable dip (ideally when the hourly fast line and slow line catch back up to one another).

2b

Hard not to be non-committal just ahead of FOMC minutes, but the IMF headline certainly shook things up.
Here's a look at the 30-min SPY.  The 3d criteria setting up the long and the 2b criteria setting up at prior highs (1-cent above previous, January, highs).

Nothing overly bearish at this point, especially considering the recent run up.  The hourly turning negative can preclude some faster time frame short setups, however, it would be preferable to wait for the fast line to tick higher then continue lower (XYZ wave) for an entry on that (hourly) time frame.

As an ammendment to the above 30min chart:
This still has potential to break out from the $184.70 base.  If that's the case, the current 30min 2c criteria would be actionable with a faster time frame (10-min below, right) going from 3d criteria to 3a (or 1a).

{updated}
Support gave way, turning the faster time frame 3d criteria into a 4c continuation and turning the higher time frame (30-min) 3/10macd fast line back down lower after a tick up.

just keeps going

Without much of a pullback to speak of, dip buyers are forced to chase.

QQQ - the only index to make a higher high giving us a slight divergence in the markets. It doesn't really matter what happens, you just have to take the setups when they happen and manage risk.

DIA 

 SPY

IWM

TLT

While watching for reactionary selling in the indices there was a reasonable justification to watch for the inverse in TLT.
The 3d criteria setup on the "trigger"(hourly) chart was looking good for a potential long entry, however, price ended up rolling over and triggering a short entry

Bulls on parade

The weekly reverse divergences are playing out (some in a bigger way than others).  This is exactly why they call it a 'Slingshot' setup.
SPY- potential reverse (sell) divergence with a higher momentum high and lower price highs, but nothing actionable until the hourly sets up a sell signal.

QQQ- came within 3-cents of it's previous all-time highs and took 4-days to erase a 10-day correction.

 DIA - This and the IWM being the "weaker" of the 4 indices.  Nothing bearish until the hourly sets up a negative bias.  A good (bullish) sign that the most recent (hourly) momentum made a higher high on this push.

IWM - one to watch as it's been lagging in performance, it's the only one that hasn't taken out it's previous swing high

weeklies

Trend is certainly still Up in the weekly charts across all sector ETF's.
With a number of reverse (buy) divergences setting up it all comes down to how enthusiastic buyers are on the next up swing.
XLB - After pulling off of all-time highs (something which could be a realistic expectation as opposed to just plowing through it) it will be telling how this sector reacts from here.  Building a base before breaking out higher could spell out the potential for a larger, longer-term move.  Anything below this week's low would get hairy (which is the case for most sectors at this point).

 XLE - Similarly pulled away from all-time highs.  $86 above is resistance to watch

 XLF - trend intact, otherwise watching the $21.75 resistance area

 XLI - trend intact, otherwise watching the $51.25 resistance area

 XLK - trend intact (broken record) $34.25 below $25.50 above

 XLP - Lower momentum lows on higher price lows are a "buy divergence" but it's important to see the buying reaction which follows.  In other words, is the new (stronger) momentum low the start of something bigger that will be eagerly sold on a move higher?

XLU - continues to coil

 XLV - trend very much intact.  The fast line being greater than the slow line can cause a choppy environment while price bounces between resistance and support (provided there isn't a wildly strong breakout range bar).

 XLY - same as the rest, trend intact and critical to see the buying appetite from here.

 IYT - after breaking out of a cycling trend channel perhaps this sector is setting up another (higher) cycling trend channel (may entertain a right shoulder going forward)

 SPY - trend is up, price within a stable channel

 QQQ - the fast line on this weekly 3/10macd didn't even turn negative.

 DIA - had a steep pullback but support managed to hold.  Reverse divergence, guage strength on the move higher

 IWM - channel intact

TLT - though price made a higher high, it's failure at that pivot is still a reverse (sell) divergence in my eye.  Important to see how much buying interest there is on a pullback lower.

So, while the trends are still intact, these are WEEKLY charts, so a continuation of the trend may not be immediate (though V-bottoms are in vogue in these markets).  There are some significant resistance points overhead to keep an eye on in order to guage selling, but there is nothing overly bearish at this point.
Being that the 3/10macd fast line is less than the slow line across the board in these sectors there can be potential for a 2b-criteria short setup (probably wouldn't be for another 4-weeks or so if it were to set up).  The funny thing with that type of criteria is price could still make a higher high but the momentum would be starkly divergent, but ideally the setup would highlight a lower high.

breakout

As mentioned yesterday: "A good action point (short term) could be a move over 175.60s" and we opened on $175.58, it's always a good confirming sign when price opens right at a significant level.
I didn't particularly like the long entry on the close yesterday (because of the distance of the slow line from zero) but looking for targets in that time frame we already achieved the primary target.

The entry for this morning set up a little before the open (often the case).  Below is the ES globex session, 15-min on the left, 5-min on right (vertical line indicating the regular trading hours open)

not much

Not much to act on at this point
Potential buy divergence on the daily. The hourly fast line turned green, so one could have nibbled on a long here but the slow line being so far from the zero line makes it tough without momentum to follow.  A good action point (short term) could be a move over 175.60s

 Similar situation in the QQQ in terms of the daily divergence, but it really isn't a divergence until the faster time frame sets up a buying opportunity, and the hourly here looks like it could just as easily test lower still.  Lower highs, lower lows still playing out on the hourly.

 IWM paused at another daily pivot, but there isn't the buy divergence as seen in the SPY and QQQ

 DIA sitting just under the 200-dayMA with a slight divergence.  The hourly fast line went green, but the slow line being so far from zero makes a long a higher risk play.

Wed. 02_05

Today's ES

A key for the above (5-min) chart to define the horizontal lines and dots. For further explanation, see this link:

Tue. 01_04

Today's ES - I didn't post yesterday's ES being that it was a trend 

If fading the Fibs the average would have been 1751 on two entries.  Otherwise a fairly choppy inside day

A key for the above (5-min) chart to define the horizontal lines and dots. For further explanation, see this link:

Initial targets

SPY and QQQ hit primary target off of this morning's higher time frame trigger

DIA as well

IWM

Hit a 3x target from the higher time frame trigger on Friday