Mon 3_25

today's trade

A key for the above chart to define the horizontal lines and dots.  For further explanation, see this link:  

Didn't get in on the short festivities, but here's a look at the SPY which includes pre-market, the subgraph top indicator reflects the 15-min 3/10macd while the bottom one is the 5-min 3/10macd.  Dash line is the open of RTH.

Had a resting order at the .35 mark as it was the 20-daySMA and previous week's Open.  Didn't get filled.

curious to see which way we go from here.  There's obviously some strong overhead resistance and we've had 3 successive higher highs and 3 successive higher lows.  Could be perceived as a bear flag at this point.  Going into the shortened week, end of month, end of quarter I wouldn't be surprised to see anything.

Fri. 03_22

today's trade

More trades than usual....very 'risk management' sort of environment...nice 5-min bar end of day huh?  Which way do you think we'll gap up on Monday? :)

Daily showing a tick up in the 3/10macd with a price pattern that you want to see for a continuation move.  Weekly still in condition 1a!

cycle count

SPY cycle count

potential target objective being the blue vertical line
I didn't mean to insinuate that the next cycle was down.  Rather, that if we broke down that would be the target.  Should we work towards an upside breakout I will update and include the upside target.

Thu. 03_21

today's trade

A key for the above chart to define the horizontal lines and dots.  For further explanation, see this link:  

Could be in the process of a third push to get long or we pull back steeper to fill the underlying gap

Tue. 03_19

today's trade:

A key for the above chart to define the horizontal lines and dots.  For further explanation, see this link:  

Still considering this a 2c-2d criteria pullback on the higher (daily) time frame.  As such I would be looking to buy a 3d on the faster time frame (65min), or some pullback combination like 3a-3b-1a.

Mon 03_18

today's trade

A key for the above chart to define the horizontal lines and dots.  For further explanation, see this link:  

Indications of trade opportunity

A breakdown of where we are:

The Daily: gap down price pullbacks that show closes off of the lows (likely short covering as price has yet to scare out larger positions).  Coming into the 20-day MA which coincides with March 5th gap ($153.65 area).  3/10macd anticipation of 1b-1a (continuation of prevailing trend) or 2c (deeper pullback).

A slight timeframe faster, the 130min (3-bars per day) showing 2c and trading between the 20- & 50-period MA's.  Price needing to recover $155.50s, potential steeper pullback to $154?

65min: 3/10macd showing potential 3-push scenario, which can mean an inverse H&S or the potential for a lower low but on lighter momentum.

30-min showing a little clearer the inverse Head & Shoulder potential.  Also, the 3/10macd shows potential for the 3d criteria long setup (Using the 130min paired with the 30min you would have a 2c-2d criteria higher time frame with 3d criteria faster time frame which I treat as bullish.  Still, you would need the 30-min fast line to go green for an entry).

Also worth noting price trading under the 5- & 10-DAY moving averages (purple and black lines respectively).

Basically looking at $155.50 above to be bullish.  Further bearish behavior I'd be looking towards the $153.65 support while giving some credibility to potential double bottom support near today's lows.

EURUSD

With the Cyprus hoopla this weekend the EURUSD pair is still holding above it's 50% Fib. retrace on the weekly.  This weekly chart is also showing the 2c-2d criteria with a reverse divergence (higher price low, lower momentum low).  The 2c-2d criteria long entry would be a 3d-3a criteria on the faster (daily) time frame, which is close to ocurring.  My main concern is the distance the slow line (daily chart) is from zero, meaning it will take a lot of momentum to sustain a move out of this 2-month long pullback.

Week ending 3_15

Been a while since posting.  When you're not sure anyone reads the site it's easy to slack on posts.
Nothing has really changed.
This week played out the 2c-2d criteria long setup on the 65-min chart (bottom left).  The daily (bottom right) has played out the 2c-2d criteria long setup since the beginning of the month:

We closed the week on a 2c-2d criteria for the 65min chart and the 15-min was showing 3d criteria to set up the long entry.  Resistance to overcome being the $156 mark

Slight bearishness on the weekly in the form of a decent sized wick on a topping type of candle.
Watching the daily 3/10macd for a fast line/slow line cross (same for weekly) to see if there's a steeper correction

A broader look at the weekly SPY.  It's interesting to notice that some very textbook technical patterns (and their measured moves) have played out quite well over the years.

just saying

Last week I mentioned here; "First thing we'd like to see is the faster time frame fast line and slow line of 3/10macd to catch up to one another, being cautious of any XYZ zig-zag waves forming."
The "faster time frame" was a reference to the 65-min chart.  Here is what happened once the fast line finally caught up with the slow line.  The only reason to become bearish at this point would be seeing degeneration in the 15-min 3/10macd (i.e. 2s & 4s, c & d criteria) which would lead the 65min 3/10macd to go into 2c criteria.

Wed 03_06

today's trade

A key for the above chart to define the horizontal lines and dots.  For further explanation, see this link:  

z-day

higher time frame achieved the 50% projection of the most recent seed wave.

Now a matter of watching how the current move is digested following the 2c-2d-1a breakout on the daily

Some comparable examples of this setup in the past; strong momentum coming out of the 2c-2d criteria breakout:

First thing we'd like to see is the faster time frame fast line and slow line of 3/10macd to catch up to one another, being cautious of any XYZ zig-zag waves forming.

We would also like to see the Daily chart 3/10macd to retain a fast line > slow line criteria

More recently we had a similar setup to start the year.  Being that price is quite stretched at this point it would make sense to pull in or catch up to the daily 20-period moving average.  Such a scenario would likely open up a buyable entry and it would be what follows that will determine continuation or further correction.

Tue. 03_05

today's trade

A key for the above chart to define the horizontal lines and dots.  For further explanation, see this link:  

daily

Forgot to add a daily chart of the SPY.  Showing a break of overhead trendline on 2c-2d criteria, looking for new high breakout confirmation

Mon 03_04

today's trade

50% retraces continue to hold

2c-2d criteria on 65m chart with 3d criteria setup on faster time frame

Fri 03_01

today's trade:

A key for the above chart to define the horizontal lines and dots.  For further explanation, see this link:  

Pretty uneventful day

Pretty funny how this market closed in a complete state of limbo this week.  We either go higher or we don't, it's tough to call

Many other markets/stocks have a similar look as this SPY weekly/daily pair below;
Weekly showing 1b with a stable 20- 50-MA trend.  Daily showing something similar to an inverted H&S pattern while the 3/10macd has a fast/slow line cross which could reset to bullish readings should it break higher from this consolidation range