CTL break

Been a while since looking at the SPY Stevenson cycles.  Interesting development in that the Cyclic Trend  Line Has been broken (and back-tested).  In Stevenson work this signals an end to the prevailing cycle (in this case a long-standing Inverted Cycle) and the beginning of its complimentary (Regular) Cycle.

a closer look at the throw-back to the CTL

Initial Target

$GC_F initial target achieved

IYT

Probably a good time to start looking at the Transportation Index for a bounce.

The higher time frame trend is very bullish (first test of the monthly 20-MA since 2012) and the weekly time frame is coming in to support

GC

Another higher time frame short trigger at the close of last week on GC

July 01

HG_

06_30

GC

HG

DJIA Quarterly

LONG-term chart.  Dow Jones Industrial Average Quarterly time frame showing a 3/10macd fast line potentially crossing the slow line (bar ends at the end of the month).  Not something that happens very often in such a slow time frame.  The overall trend would remain bullish for quite some time but it is interesting that the 20-period MA lines up nicely with support.

not much has changed

In terms of the current (weekly) inverted cycle.  398-weeks off the lows into the most recent all-time high.

hooking

look, I realize that I'm flip-flopping on my intrpretation of the higher time frame Gold futures.  You can get chopped to pieces in narrow range consolidation, but eventually price will break out in one or another direction, and that's where you need to act.  So, until price breaks out we have to look for clues.
Price may be hooking up, which would turn the higher time frame (monthly) 3d critieria back to bullish.  Price has coiled for nearly one year, expect a big move and follow the direction of that move.

hmm

Could spell trouble (for longs)

GC 3d

Gold has been choppy (coiling) but the higher time frame 3d criteria could still be in play coming out of May.

SnP chart dump

rollover watch

$GC higher time frame on roll over watch.
After the potential for a 3d long criteria waned (losing steam at the weekly 50MA and monthly 20MA) we have the potential for a breakdown

Similar to the way $HG behaved to start 2014.  Monthly time frame set up the potential for a 3d criteria long position but continued to see rejection from the 20MA, rolling-over through support

1a trend

GC monthly

Cautious of a roll-over on the higher time frame after tagging initial target.
Price needs to stabilize at 1197-1217 support for further upside.

progress

GC progressing in the 3d criteria long setup on the (much) higher time frame.
You can make the argument that you would have stopped yourself out when the weekly fast line ticked down, resulting in a $9.80/contract loss.  However, the next week you got another trigger to enter which saw the $48.80 primary target hit today.

An important lesson in HG regarding this 3d criteria setup and to be cautious of a potential roll-over.  We recently saw in Copper how price got caught up in the 20-period MA and rolled over.