New Year's Eve

Quite the end of day/year ramp in the SPY today.  Came within $0.03 of the 2R target.

IWM still floating around it's 3R target

DIA - had a breakout move on the close, 3R target could be realized by end of week

QQQ - similar to DIA.  Breaking out of a cup&handle

Well, if you're reading this, hope you have a fun and safe New Years eve and a Happy and Prosperous 2014!!

Thu 12_26

IWM - obtained 3R and looking like a reversal bar on the daily.

QQQ - basing under the 2R target

DIA - within range of 2R target

SPY - $1 shy so far of 2R $184.71

Tue

Just an update from previous post.
IWM - within $0.05 so far of 3R.  Worth noting that the daily registered a higher momentum high on higher price highs.  Pullbacks are still a buy.

SPY- hit the 1R as measured from the trigger bar's Close to previous bar's swing low.

DIA - riding the channel

updated move

An update of the most recent triggered long entries.

 SPY - With such a wide range momentum bar measuring the target is tough.  Either you put your stop at the trigger bar's Open ($2.18) or the previous bar's low.

IWM- had a much better structure (bull flag).

 DIA- similar to the SPYwide rage bar.

QQQ

jersey

Heading to New Jersey for the holidays, so not sure how much I'll be posting.  Just wanted to update the recent Daily/Hourly time frames as they seem to be setting up potential entries.
  Being that this is an FOMC day, if the targets aren't hit by 2pm ET, then there is potential for steep adverse moves.
IWM - has been giving the most profitable signals so far.  There was a potential long trigger into the close yesterday that already achieved it's primary target within the first hour of today.

QQQ - giving a short trigger?  hmmmm Be cautious of a buy divergence though.  Daily trying to hold the 20-day MA.

SPY - still waiting on the current hourly bar to close before it triggers.  Caution with a fast line less than slow line if it should trigger.

DIA - fast line less than slow line, so the risk is greater in my opinion, also what could be a divergence (higher price highs on lower momentum).  The daily could be showing a bullish condition if it closes with a FL >SL

Mon 12_16

Just updating previously posted charts.
SPY- like most of the charts to follow, being that we had a gap up followed by narrow range consolidation we have to decide (based on a faster time frame) whether this is a closing hourly bar worth chasing.  Entering on the close of the Hourly trigger bar I would likely stop myself out if the fast line crosses the slow line.

IWM - had the better results based on trigger entries.  Interesting that the pitchfork set-up is playing out (nearly tagging the "trigger line").   Again, a fast line crossing the slow line on the hourly is a consideration to exit.

 QQQ- just looking like a pullback in a down trend so far.  Perhaps buy an hourly tick Up in the fast line.

 DIA- basically an entry on trigger would be at roughly break-even.  The daily divergence played out but being at resistance little has been proven.

Fri. 12_13

Just consolidation so far can work lower, in which case a 3d criteria setup on the hourly could be in play.

IWM actually  got a testable long entry, "testable" in the sense that you could have entered with the understanding that it was a more aggressive entry.  Basically the slow line is still quite far from the zero-line.  Also broke out of the Upper Median Line and held a re-test.

QQQ still in a channel, still waiting on an hourly fast line change to positive.

SPY - still has support under it and a fast line on the hourly could set up a 3d criteria setup.

Gold fail

If I were long GC based on the previously mentioned premise (found here) then I would be out and waiting for a new long trigger.
Based on the 4-H chart (below, right) your first warning was the Fast Line crossing the Slow Line, your second warning was the fast line turning negative (red) and your final warning being the strong momentum after the 3rd fast line negative reading.  Given these "signals" if you were trading based off of this chart and it's signals, then you may have been able to exit at break-even .  I understand that can be perceived as hindsight bias, but these are the signals/triggers I look for personally.

At this point it is important that the Daily slow line supports the fast line (the 4H chart should re-orient to a fast line > slow line), otherwise it is looking rather bleak for a Gold long bias.

thu. 12_1

DIA - made a lower low.  Tomorrow's open should determine whether the daily is diverging from the momentum indicator.  The hourly showing a small inverted H&S so a breakout from the neckline could see a move at least back to $159

IWM - Holding the 50-day MA with a small doji around the previous day's close.  A good example of the "XYZ - corrective wave" which stands out really well with the 3/10macd.

As an aside; in both the DIA and IWM above there are pitchforks which came close to, but did not touch their midline.  According to Andrews there is then the expectancy that price should move to the "trigger line" (shown in fuchsia).

The QQQ has still not tagged it's 20-day MA (sign of strength) and is trying to hold the double-bottom at $85.  I would suspect that immediate lower prices will get bought.

SPY has support below from the previous breakout area in November

The buying momentum today was pretty strong coming after a "triple swing divergence".  This large momentum is registers a reverse divergence and so the fade from that move could be pretty strong.  I would assume lower lows will be bought and a gap up (178.70 perhaps?) might get chased.  Previous triple swing divergence-turned-momentum-fade was 12/4; new lows were bought sharply but it needed a day to consolidate.

For now, there are lower highs and in some cases lower lows in place.  But buyers will begin to nibble and squeezes in both directions are likely to take place.

the damage

SPY hit two targets after the trigger bar

IWM coming just shy 3R, possible it gets hit overnight or on the open tomorrow.

QQQ it's all about the ability to hold a higher low at this point.  Just shy of 2nd target

DIA (similarly the SPY) it would be important for momentum to follow through on the downside, otherwise a buy divergence can come into play.

SPY cycles

Update on the near-term SPY cycle count.  The most recent "Inverted Cycle" (with a "7" count) makes it seem as though more downside. The 12/04 pivot being essential for putting in an extended "Regular Cycle" from here.  The other possibility (being that tomorrow is day 7 in this current Regular Cycle) is that we have a symmetrical Regular cycle before turning back up for the next inverted cycle.

IWM

Was the only of the indexes (DIA, SPY, QQQ) that triggered a sell signal on the houlry.  Primary target achieved.  $110.06 secondary.

secondary target achieved

GC

Potential long entry trigger in Gold today.
On the weekly (below, left) and daily (below, right) today's close marked an entry in anticipation of the weekly time frame buy divergence playing out.

A little faster time frame; Daily (below, left) and ~4-hour (below, right) had a really nice 3d criteria setup and really nice R:R entry.  Primary resistance to deal with is the 1289 area.

The momentum on the 4H chart is pretty solid, and though the main trend is still solidly negative dip buying seems reasonable from here and back into the 1230 range.  Under 1230 could see a failed move turn into a fast (bearish) move.

An even higher time shows a clearer picture of the monthly chart potential for a '3-pushes to a low' setup to play out

Fri 12_06

Didn't get a chance sooner to post these higher time frame setups/entries/targets:

The SPY hit it's first target on Monday's open

nothing to see

Narrow consolidation ahead of employment report tomorrow morning (8:30am ET).
All are holding higher lows; the SPY being closest to a daily higher low pivot (just under $178).
The QQQ gave some potential long entries on the hourly, but turned to scratches for small loss.

SPY continues to consolidate within range (3/10macd fast line > slow line)

IWM gave a potential entry that was later scratched for a small loss after a tick down in the fast line on a reverse divergence.

DIA similar pattern to the SPY.  No long potential until fast line turns positive.