DJIA Quarterly

Just an interesting chart.
     The Dow Jones Industrial Average Quarterly (log) chart.  Interesting the 5-year cycle phase.  Were traders in 1997 chattering about "bubble" and "too far, too fast", etc.?

Wed 5_15

Underestimated the strength in the late morning extension.  Didn't take the short.  Some quick scalps in the last hour.

Breadth -

Vol Profile - yesterday's VPOC held and that's all we seemed to need

ES with globex

Tue. 05_14

Open Drive opening type (vertical dash lines represent every 5-minute interval)

You have to be ready for it, entry was on the close of the first 5-minute bar.  If wrong where would your stop be?  The low of that first 5-minute bar?  If that's the case your max loss would be approximately 3 E-mini points ($0.30 on the SPY).
 Hindsight - I left a bit on the table, should have waited for the 5-min 3/10macd to take profits.
If you miss the earlier entry on an Opening Drive day oftentimes you can look to buy the first 5-minute Red bar, or a bar confirming that red bar.

Based on the hourly time frame my target was approximately $1.  The trigger set up into the close and there was a decent technical pattern to measure (cup & handle)

Breadth two hours in

Mon 05_13

Breadth

Vol profile comming into today

Higher time frame- potential long entry provided we break out (again) and get the fast/slow line crossover on the faster time frame's 3/10macd

ES with globex - a bit choppy on some of those entry triggers

Dollar 3d

Update on the weekly time frame 3d criteria (shaded in the chart below, left) setup that took place on the U.S. Dollar Index at the start of this year.
The daily showing potential "trigger" entries (one of which "failed" where price reversed and made a lower low).

 Watching for potential breakout over $83.70

Fri 05_10

Choppy, choppy day....

Spent A LOT of time chewing through these high volume nodes

Breadth - Up/Down_Volume stayed trending bullish all day long.  Adv/Decl issues bounced nicely at the zero-line initially, failed but recovered later on

Higher time frame - 65-min showing 2c-2d criteria (looking for a 3d criteria on faster time frame for entry long) while holding on top of the 20-period MA

Weekly/Daily bulls in control

Thu 05_09

Didn't take any trades until the afternoon period
 
Breadth -

Volume profile coming into today.  Bounces this week have come before or beyond VPOC or LVN areas

Higher time frame- Daily 3/10macd fast line starting to curve lower, 65min could be setting up for a steeper pullback, but you have to be prepared for an uptick in that 65min fast line

ES with globex

BIDU 3d

I've been watching BIDU here and there, watching for the higher time frame 3d criteria setup to develop (shaded area in the chart below, left).
I thought this would be a good example to profile because of the difficulty which the "triggers" proved to be.  The important consideration for this setup to exhibit is strength in price recovering a significant market structure high (look left for pivots).
The Blue up-arrows (on the 15-min chart below, right) are potential long entry "triggers".  The black down arrows are instances where the fast line and slow line cross, which should be an "at most" stop out metric.  The blue trendlines and horizontal line at $86 indicate significant pivots for price to take out, so when you see an up arrow, look to the left and see which pivot that price needed to close above.
There were some short entries to consider, but I wanted to focus on the 3d criteria setup.  Of the 5 potential entries, 2 were scratches and 2 averaged both a $0.50 loss per share (which could have been helped with shorting the failure of the setup.  That is, had you waited for the fast line and slow line cross to tell you to get out, depending upon your comfort with reading price action, some of these trades could have been managed for better results.  So, at wost, you may have lost $1/share but currently be in a position with an approximately $6/share reward

Potential triggers after the jump:

Wed 05_08

Breadth - zero-line bounce on the Adv/Decl

Volume profile coming into the day -

Higher time frames:
SPY

ES with globex

ES with globex intraday

Tue 05_07

HIgher time frame, watching potential momentum roll-over

ES with Globex

Higher time frame ES with globex

Mon 05_06

A key for the above (5-min) chart to define the horizontal lines and dots.  For further explanation, see this link:  

Volume profile coming into the day.  Though Friday was a momentum day, it wasn't a trend day, more of a "Normal" day type (Wide IB with IB High/Low retained.

 

Higher time frame - looking for the 3/10macd fast line and slow line to catch up with one another (on the 65min) for any further long considerations.

ES with Globex and long entries considerations

Fri. 05_03

First buy based on 50% Fib. retrace (Really should have been in off the open.  Really, really should have been in on the NFP release).  Other trades during the day were smaller scalps.  Second up-arrowdoesn't show exits.

With bullish wind in your sails, it's a little easier to "trust" some typical TICK divergences (highlighted).  Selling (profit-taking) seemed prevalent throughout the day.

I believe LBR refers to the setup below as an "Anti" which shows itself as a small flag.   In toddstrade™ nomenclature I refer to it as 1b-to-1a.  The "trigger" would be the faster time frame fast line going green (in the scenario below the faster time frame was showing 2c-2d criteria so you could drill down further still and look for a 3d criteria on a faster time frame).  The discretionary aspect of this approach arrises in making the decision to either wait until the bar closes or get in as price is breaking out.  

As an aside, a picture perfect "First Cross" setup occurred on 4/23 (indicated with an up-arrow on that date) on this higher time frame ES chart (below, left).  Also 1b-1a criteria except the slow line just came up through the zero-line. 

The day's range with volume profile

Thu. 05_02

A key for the above (5-min) chart to define the horizontal lines and dots.  For further explanation, see this link:  

ES with Globex - didn't take the entry for this in the morning, it was the bar preceding the bar with the up arrow on the 5min chart above (the bar before the one with an "X" underneath it).

Breadth - started out moderately strong from the open, broke out above 200k by 11:00am

Volume Profile coming into the day - Shorts not going to press anything into the numbers tomorrow. Opened right under a HVN  then proceeded to move higher through the next two HVN's

A good example, on the higher time frame, where a sell divergence in a momentum indicator doesn't mean price has to go down.  The daily 3/10macd showing a sell divergence and a down-ticking fast line, yet closed at a higher high

Pretty neat that the ES closed at a lower high, just under 1600 going into tomorrow's  numbers.  Can go either way