Mon 12_31

Today showed a decent example of the 2c-2d setup (without the "trend" which is usually associated with it, so that can be a heads-up going forward) on the higher time frame, where the faster time frame of the pair showed the 3d criteria (3-pushes to a low price pattern) to set up an entry:

GLD

GLD hit it's primary target this morning after breaking down from the bear flag:

Wed. 12_19

Today's Trade:

A key for the above chart to define the horizontal lines and dots.  For further explanation, see this link:  

I didn't take any trades in the SPY today, the arrows in the chart below represent areas I would have likely considered taking a trade:

The higher time frame; Daily showing dark cloud cover candle pattern.  

I will be traveling tomorrow and my blog posts may be infrequent over the next two weeks.  

 Merry Christmas, Happy Holidays & a Happy New Year!

Tue 12_18

Today's Trade:

A key for the above chart to define the horizontal lines and dots.  For further explanation, see this link:  

Momentum continues - Similar criteria as that of yesterday, 1a with 2c-2d later in the day

Small gap zone to fill overhead.  Otherwise I might suspect some back-and-fill price action into Options Expiration (quadruple witching) on Friday.

EUR update

An update on the EURUSD posted over the weekend:

3d

Sometimes the 3d criteria setup works really well.  Sometimes the price pattern leading up to it is an inverse head and shoulders, sometimes it is in the form of three pushes to a low, this was the latter:

Mon 12_17

Today's Trade:

A key for the above chart to define the horizontal lines and dots.  For further explanation, see this link:  

Wasn't around for the later afternoon, so the "X" under the two potential long entries means I didn't take the trade.

Looking like through $144 we can see $146

XLF has already taken out the previous week's high

EUR_USD

Will be telling in the coming week/s what happens with the EURUSD pair.  After a seemingly strong week, the Euro broke above 1.31 on strength (potential long considerations with up arrows) and through an overhead trend line, but there is some resistance to consider through to the 1.34's.  Most concerning is the weekly 3/10macd fast line remaining under the slow line, which can still cross positively but we have to wait and see follow-through momentum in the week ahead.  The trade was to position for a breakout of the 1.31 base (up-arrows), so chasing at this point isn't desirable, so it's a matter of seeing how strong momentum is going forward.

This chart in reverse gives us the U.S. Dollar Index.
The bearish potential here is that this week finally broke down from a bear flag, a large bear flag, which could measure to at least 76.  We can also see the potential for a decent Head & Shoulders pattern.
The one bullish premise can be considered in the form of the 3d criteria (highlighted region), where the 3/10macd fast line is correcting into a positively sloping slow line.  We see this criteria on both the weekly and daily 3/10 macd.  A trigger to the weekly 3/10 macd would be to see the daily fast line go green (positive) without much further negative momentum from this point.  The 3d criteria is often a short squeeze type of environment (and can often see an inverse head and shoulders or 3-pushes to a low type of price pattern), which we could see happening if strength follows a failed break down of this past week (and squeezing shorts out).  So, again, it's a matter of gauging continued EURUSD momentum in the week ahead.

week ending 12_14

QQQ weekly look
 
The weekly QQQ 3/10macd is showing the potential for a 4c-4d criteria setup (essentially a bear flag).  Worth noting that the slow line is now negative (which often precedes a 20- & 50-MA crossover) and price is now under the 50-period moving average (which makes a stronger case for the 20- & 50-MA crossing).  This year we've seen two very symmetrical cycles of around 24-weeks, and as it stands we're in week 12 (mid-way) of what could be a symmetrical corrective wave.

We can compare the above 3/10 macd criteria to that of July where we saw the slow line go negative.  The glaring differences being the following;
 - Though price was working within the 20- & 50-MA window we saw green candles and price closing near the upper range of that 20/50-MA window.
 - When looking at the potential 4c-4d continuation criteria we're looking for a bear flag pattern, that's not what we saw in July.
 - The Daily chart showed a channel (symmetrical cycles), compared to the current daily chart where we see a prior double top and price at the bottom of it's "M"-pattern.

XLF has shown "strength", but the weekly momentum hasn't really reflected it, instead showing the 2b criteria which often highlights a 3-pushes to a high pattern

I would post more charts, but they're really showing about the same thing as the two above.  Sector-ETF's, index ETF's all showing weekly weakness.

Fri. 12_14

Today's Trade:

A key for the above chart to define the horizontal lines and dots.  For further explanation, see this link:  

In the chart above:
First entry long in anticipation of 3d criteria setup.  The following trade (short) was the premise that the 3d "failed" and price would/could roll over. Then entered long after failure to breakdown from IB_low thinking, "from failed moves come fast moves."  Then I just gave up throughout the remaining chop, the final short was entered at the bar previous to the one with the down-arrow.

It's looking a little tricky on the higher time frame.
The daily 3/10macd looks to be rolling over.  The 130-min has the potential for the 2c-2d criteria setup to play out

 if that's the case I usually like to see a 3d criteria on a faster time frame, which the 30-min chart has the potential for setting up (the chart on the left below).  So, into Monday we're looking for strength above $142.50-ish for this pattern to play out

What seems pretty bearish to me at this point is the weekly chart below.
Price was rejected under $143.  To anticipate the weekly 3/10macd to roll over and have it's bear flag play out (where the fast line would turn red, back to criteria 2c or 4c) we're looking for the daily 3/10macd fast line to turn red

back with more weekly charts later.

Thu 12_13

A good example today of being cautious (or at least patient) in buying divergences.  The SPY 15-min 3/10 macd divergence was present from early in the afternoon, but didn't trigger any "buying" until 30-minutes prior to the close.

To briefly explain the above chart:  The first down arrow (with an "X" above it) on the 5-minute chart to the left was the entry I should have taken (but did not) in anticipation of the higher time frame 4c criteria (bear flag).

Two looks at the higher time frame:
Here the Daily/65-min to show the fresh momentum low on that 65-min time frame

While the Daily/130-m pair looking like a bounce could be in order due to the reverse divergence.  Perhaps a throwback to that channel drawn on the 65m above ($143.50?)

As for the rest;
XLF - strong downside momentum but holding previous lows.  It's not dead yet, need to gauge the impending bounce

DIA - looking like it's just pulling into trend support

IWM - nothing spectacular, just filled a gap (again, reverse divergence)

QQQ- just still within a range.  Double-top is evident so weakness $64.75-$65 is on the radar

just some charts

Still not back in the swing of things.
SPY continuing to fail between $144-144.50.  Highlighted on the 3/10macd for the daily is this pattern where the fast line and slow line are positive but still "bearish" in the sense that the fast line is < the slow line.  The faster time frame (65-min chart) highlighting the head and shoulder pattern forming on the 3/10 macd.

IWM daily showing a bearish engulfing (well, not quite, we closed ever so slightly above yesterday's low).
The daily 3/10macd showing a similar orientation as that as the SPY above, while the faster time frame turned red.  We would like to see some form of pullback higher in the fast line to trigger us into a short on a down tick of the fast line.

The QQQ has been divergent this entire time, and not instilling confidence.

The DIA bearish divergence at resistance still stands.  There's a 'trend' still intact unless it closes under the $130.25 area.

XLF- It did make a higher low than the November swing, but still a third overall lower high.  This too has a trend intact and dips will be enticing to buyers (faster time frame 3/10 macd not overly bearish at this point)

GLD - barely had any reaction to today's market currents.  Looks to be a bear flag in progress

and the last chart, just comparing the previous two years of these 'melt-ups' we've had

update

Been too sick to be at my computer these past two day.  Here are some updated charts:

XLF printing dojis on this pattern breakout.  Momentum divergence and potentially the 4th consecutive lower high

DIA shooting star into resistance coming out of this rising wedge.

charts

Some charts I posted on Stocktwits tonight.