Pitchfork voodoo

Starting with the SPY off of the March '09 lows and including the most dramatic swing high and low:

A little closer up with sliding parallel lines included:

Throw in the most recent seed wave which started the recent drifting rally.  The drift appears to be yawning ever so slightly:

A look at the Dollar index monthly chart:

Spanning the past 20-years, price has bounced twice from the Lower Median Line area but keeps working its way down.

Pullback

Momentum, Pullback, Continuation:
Entered short @55, exited half @ $54 half @ $53.75

More charts/examples added to the 3/10MACD 3c setup document (link found in the sidebar entitled Doc.s Upon Request).

Up ahead

What I'll be looking at this week:
RIMM; Broke down from a trendline before squeezing back above it.  Momentum was weak and the weekly 3/10 macd may go negative, but can reset higher if price can take out the above resistance and take out stops of higher time frames.

On the Daily, there's potential for a test of resistance higher, but what I believe was a short squeeze this week may see prices come back to support.  The 3/10 slow line just crossed zero as the fast line corrects into it (bearish) which is often a good time to anticipate a short entry and also indicative of a potential 20- & 50-day MA cross.

HES; weekly shows a rejection candle at a gap created in Oct. '08 on waning momentum.  This trend has had very little rest since Sept. '10.

Daily shows price barely holding onto it's trendline.  Volume appears to be distributive over the course of the last few weeks as price has oscillated within a roughly $7 range.  However, the trend is very much UP, so a return to support could see active buying.

MON; weekly has settled back into previous support after strong momentum.

 While the Daily shows that $74-$76 level causing resistance on a momentum divergence.  I would be ready to lean short in anticipation of the daily 3/10 macd fast line crossing the slow line.

Interesting looking at the intraday chart and volume on MON.  All gaps up have been sold on heavy volume.  It has the look (to me) of distribution at these levels getting out at an average price of $75.

FCX; I don't think this issue is done testing the highs.  The weekly showing sell divergence at the highs, but a buy (reverse) divergence at these recent swing lows.  I'm anticipating a swing up in the 3/10 macd over the next few weeks where a higher prices may result in another sell divergence.

The Daily shows price resting on its 20- & 50-day MAs however there's also a sell divergence present (higher high in momentum, lower high in price; indicative of a short squeeze).  So initially I would like to see selling back to the recent lows, or even better, beyond the lows where a buy divergence would set up.  Otherwise, if it goes too far too fast it could exhaust itself over $60.

NVDA; Watching for a potential blow-off move to trade.  The weekly is starting to show a divergence (higher highs as the macd ticks lower highs).

While the Daily shows this ascending wedge, on waning momentum.  So, I may look to get long, but quick to exit and/or reverse.

 
OXY; Keeping an eye on this as it consolidates (flags) under all-time highs.  The 3/10 macd looks to be setting up for another bullish push higher.

The Daily looks like it could come back to the 50-day as the macd fast line pulls into the slow line, but I think that may be a buyable pullback.

CMI; Working on a steeper trendline where price looked to be breaking down from, but quickly recovered.  The macd shows a reverse divergence where a test of the highs seems likely.

The Daily shows strong volume on the recent divergence and overhead trendline base building.  A slight pullback would be nice to see.

Been away from the blog, but have been adding charts/examples into this document.  It requires permission for viewing, but just click the request and I'll accept.  This document references a favored setup using the 3/10 macd for intraday trading.

one more pitchfork

Following up on yesterday's pitchfork post.

Approaching Pitchfork

Price is approaching a long-term Andrews pitchfork Upper Median line.

While scraping along the underside of this daily median line on an ever-obvious momentum divergence.