jersey

I got in to New Jersey last night and will be here through the holidays. Not sure how much work I'll get done, but I'm not sweatin' it.
Hope everyone is happy and healthy.
cheers!

FOMC

I don't participate in Fed-day, so I've got nothing today. 0% rate and day after day we have negative news, and yet we have a +5% day. Check out the Elliott wave synopsis over at AfraidtoTrade.com to get some perspective on where we are and where we might be headed in the intermediate-term.

water + laptop

Well, yesterday I knocked over my water (at least it wasn't coffee) and it spilled over my laptop keyboard. Basically, my laptop is my life and it also allows me to trade (that along with a separate 20" screen). When the water spilled onto the keyboard the screen instantly went to this black and white crosshatch looking image. I shut it down, turned it upside down and ran to get the vacuum. I vacuumed across the keyboard as thoroughly as I could, and pulled the battery out. I basically left it alone for 24-hours (which is why I didn't do any trading of market watching today). I let it sit in front of the heater (not directly in front of it, just where it could catch a steady stream of warm air) all day and night.
Long story short, it's (thankfully) back up and running like nothing ever happened. It's funny because I'm always telling my wife to keep all liquids away from my laptop, and what do I go and do? It figures! I'm amazed that these things could put up with water like this though. It's not like I took a garden hose to it, but still it was enough to short the system.
This should certainly be a lesson in the importance of redundancy for your set-up.

Qs

At least we know where our battle lines are. Today's Q's activity was a choppy trend day up that left us right at resistance left from the past week (which was actually acting as support). These levels are being defended regardless of what negative news headlines are thrown at it. I'm not sure what to think at the moment, next week should bring some volatility I suspect by looking at the Daily chart. A case for the bulls could be the fact that the last two sessions (on the Q's) left us with a piercing line candlestick pattern. Of course, we can't make trading decisions based on candles alone, but the market sure isn't listening to the news lately.
5-minute: Today's gap was bought, and a few of the bearish momentum divergences could have been scalped counter-trend, but that last hour was crappy.
15-minute: Some wider perspective. Support becomes resistance. The trend-line breaks didn't sell off like the previous sessions.

stonewalled

"The Federal Reserve refused a request by Bloomberg News to disclose the recipients of more than $2 trillion of emergency loans from U.S. taxpayers and the assets the central bank is accepting as collateral."
"If they told us what they held, we would know the potential losses that the government may take and that’s what they don’t want us to know,"

stuff

e-mini rollover dates

Does anyone know where I can find information regarding when the e-mini equities futures rollover to the next month? I looked through the CME, but it wasn't clear to me. I was hearing that today was a rollover day (at least for the e-mini S&P500) but according to what I was seeing on the CME website that next Friday is the rollover date.
Does anyone have information that could clear this up for me?
Thanks!

finally...

...the Q's filled the gap. twas getting annoying for a while there. It's not often you can pull $1+ out of the Q's, but today was such a day if you were aggressive. It's been driving me nuts seeing this market clinging to this range for the past 3 days, so it's a waiting game for the move to take hold. The bad part was that I had a directional bias (to the downside) which isn't a good thing to have, as a bias can be disappointed and therefore introduce emotion into one's trading.
For the past two days price has chopped around the narrowed 20- & 50- EMA's (on the 15-minute chart). The late day selling caused these averages to cross which, in the near term, gives me higher probability trades in shorting the pullback to the 9-EMA (if price is excelerating quickly), or 20-EMA. If price seems to want to make a run for the 50-EMA quickly than we might assume that buyers are defending this level pretty strongly, if that makes sense.
In my guesstamation, price could test the $29.40 - 29.50 range if we don't continue immediate selling tomorrow. Anyway, here are the charts:
5-minute:

15-minute:Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar index got a punch to the head today.

low volume range

A lot of rallying today on no volume whatsoever. And for some reason we're just not filling that gap in the Q's though it just feels inevitable. I took a short trade that I was shaken out of and wasn't in front of the computer to get back in, so I just watched it come down to my targets. All-in-all a frustrating day.

nice graphic

QLD

Things seem reversed these past two weeks; The selling is choppier than it was a few weeks ago, and the rallies are sharper. The Q's are looking weak here in their attempt to test the 50-day EMA, it looks (IMHO) like the probability is higher for a gap fill (to the downside) tomorrow than a continuation to the upside.Here was my perspective on QLD today:
15-minute chart (indecision in this $27-28 range)On the 5-minute day-trading:
However, the U.S. Dollar Index has been in a sideways consolidation pattern (as well as bearish momentum) that's also looking like a Head and Shoulders pattern which could bode well for stocks (and commodities?).

god bless america

Buyers are certainly present in the market. The Q's gapped up and stalled at resistance. Not to say the the bulls aren't skittish to sell at the first sign of exhaustion. A gap down tomorrow could lead to a evening star reversal formation, so we should be on guard. Otherwise, an upward target could be the 50-EMA on the daily charts.

Short Keanu Reeves

Cantor Fitzgerald seeking to launch an exchange to trade "Domestic Box Office" Receipts."

worth a read

Collapse of the Soviet Union due to the price of Grain and Oil.

Strong Close

The SPY and Q's closed above their daily 20-EMA, but we're still in this sideways consolidation. It seems like we're seeing a lot more buyers stepping up and sellers shying away from the lows intra-day at these levels.

funny

MARIO KART (REMI GAILLARD)
by nqtv

WTF?!

technical difficulties all day...pain in the ass.

slacker

I won't be back online until Wednesday the earliest. Hope everyone that drops by here is making lots of money with this volatility. While I'm away from the markets I'll be working on my five year plan, as outlined at my hero's blog. Happy Trading!
My new mantra:
As challenges arise, always ask yourself "will this matter in five years?"