trend day

Well, surprisingly USO did not trend inversely to the indexes. There were some great shorting opportunities within the ETF's that I watch (yep it's QLD redux time). Of particular interest for me is documenting the same sort of set-up I have seen countless times (and with countless different securities) throughout our current market environment.
An opening range (first 45-min to an hour) is violated with a NR7 bar (doji in this example) kicking things off to the downside. This move also took place at the S1 pivot support area. The crowd piles in, drives prices to another support area (with a prior day significance) where a retrace takes place to tag a moving average (13-period in this example).
After tagging this average (and resistance is established) price continues it's slide to the downside where a bottom works itself out, a double bottom (at S2 pivot support) in this case. It is after this point where a greater upside test could be expected with anywhere from a 38% to a 50% retracement target (from high of day to double bottom low).
The window of opportunity presents itself when price squeezes between a fast and a faster length moving average (in my case I'm using a simple 5 & 13 period), or as price rises above the mid-line in a "W" formation (I got in late, but knew my target provided sufficient risk/reward). After this move exhausts itself another short position can be entered. In this scenario (and since you have locked in profit from the earlier day's trades) a stop at break-even gives sufficient wiggle room for the chop that ensued for the remainder of the afternoon, just before positions started closing out at the end of day.
Enjoy the extended weekend! By the way, I'm curious to see what Tuesday will bring for IWM after a very large volume spike in the last 10-minutes of trading today.

deep

close your eyes and listen to the meaning in his words...deep stuff. Dreams are the seedlings of realities.

IWM

The iShares Russell 2000 ETF IWM has been trending away from the previous swing low for the past three days now (with at least some volume behind it). Today it filled a gap left from last week and seems determined to stay above it's 200-day Moving Average. Unfortunately for me I kept my focus on the choppy mess in QLD today, instead of following the nice steady trend of IWM; lesson learned.

Q..

My buddy, the Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD). You can tell by now I just want to focus on the indexes and their derivatives, hence QLD charts. I also spent the day setting up my workspaces for IWM, SSO, and DDM. So, with today's action in QLD, as Oil broke down the index heated up, pretty straightforward correlation. The bottom indicator is Alan Farley's ADA (Accumulation-Distribution Accelerator).

QLD sleeper

A pretty low-volume choppy day today. There's got to be an impending move in one direction or the other eventually, right? The following chart is the typical 250,000 share-bar chart I like to use for QLD. It's supposed to equate to a 5-min chart, today's early afternoon candles were taking upwards of 10-15 minutes to form. There were some small profitable moves though if you are alert.

myETFs

I created a list of ETF's for myself today. They're meant to be my pulse across the markets, and see where relative strength may be leaning. Often-times seeing set-ups taking place in these sector-based ETF's can also help focus my attention toward strong stocks within those sectors. I'm sure I'm leaving some things out, but this is what I came up with for the moment (and I wanted to keep it as a manageable list). Of primary importance to me with creating this list is having these ETFs liquid enough to daytrade effectively. So, the majority of my ETF list has a daily average volume of 500,000 shares. You can view it here.
Feel free to critique.

DIG

Took a couple of trades in USO and QLD today. USO was a scalp short, QLD was a counter-trend trade and I missed the money move down b/c of distractions.
Anyway, I was looking at DIG today; Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares. Looking at USO, as a proxy for Oil, it looks to have found solid support at it's 200 Moving Average. With that bullish affirmation in USO, looking at DIG (ProShares Ultra Oil & Gas) we see a momentum divergence taking shape, with a small bullish flag leading the initial move up and out of resistance (the $83 level). We could possibly anticipate a move up to test the first level of overhead resistance at the 50-EMA (or $92.60-ish). One might also take a look at some of the issues held in DIG (including OXY, SLB, XOM). With that being said of Oil's potential move up from here, check out Corey's post over at AfraidtoTrade for his analysis at the Dow and the recent non-confirmation rally we've had.

Motivational Monday

There are a lot of metaphors that pertain to trading in this video.
The climb is a .13A or, in other words, sick! Lynn Hill is better known for being the first person (not the first woman, the first person) to make the first free ascent of the Nose of El Cap. Only later to become the first to free climb the entire route within 24 hours (normally takes about 3 days). Climb on!

trade set-ups

USO filled it's previous day gap and set up two narrow range consolidation shorts. The first one being a more aggressive short early in the morning off of a break of the previous day's low(PDL). This set-up was more risk than reward; after the break price became choppy once it failed supprt from the PDL and S2 pivot (also coincides with Fibonacci S/R levels, not shown).
The second NR break set up back around the S2 support base.
QLD set up a tweezer reversal/bottom on it's 15-minute chart. This coincided with trend line and Moving Average support, target being the previous swing high.FWLT failed the $51 price point and gapped down today. Price consolidated into a symmetrical triangle before triggering a short.

FWLT

Bought a quick base break in FWLT this afternoon as well. Set an alert for price hitting $50.44. Could see a test of the 20day Moving Average tomorrow at $51.80.

QLD

QLD formed a tweezer bottom on the 15-minute at trend line (from the past week) support. First long entry at $76.50 with initial target (and partial profit taking) at the S1 pivot ($77.15, support that acted as resistance) where price chopped around before continuing up to the previous day's trend line resistance. Letting it run, moving stop for remaining position to break-even with the anticipation of a gap fill.

Waste Money

$300-million ad campaign featuring a washed up hack comic pretending Windows Vista isn't a washed up hack operating system. Don't get me wrong, I loved the Seinfeld series, but we all know it should have been called Costanza.

FWLT

FWLT got a pop this morning after basing at a $46 support level. Looks like it could have some follow-through potential this week.
Here's the 15-minute chart today. Wish I would have faded the move below the R1 pivot.

DRYS

A gap down today in DRYS created an island reversal that gave a higher probability short of the flagging retracement. As well as fading the return to the opening range highs on low volume.

FREEtheAirWaves

Bubbles

Thanks to Stewie for bringing it to everyone's attention, we have this video about Bubbles. Fascinating, and quite logical thinking. To think that we could have another 40% downside to go in the housing market is pretty crazy. Watch the video and learn danielson.

Motivation Monday

Jumping 4 feet on one leg!!!

Chart of the Week

the HANS short Squeeze.
You could have followed it courtesy of the Fly.
First the Daily. Notice the gaps (on lower volume) culminating in a high volume NR7 bar at the end of a triangle pattern.
the 15-minute. A high momentum morning gap up starts the short covering, aka GMTFO (get me the F out). Price rests right on a resistance trend line, but only until the next session, eventually retracing 62% in 4 days. Remember the $21.40 price level as future support, if we see it again.

Imagine...

....what we could accomplish domestically with the $120-billion/year "we" spend on the occupation of Babylon.(think high-speed electro-magnetic trans-continental railway, and zero emission vehicles). Let the revolution begin!

sweet

UglyChart goes iUgly...ok, NOW I have to get an iPhone.

Same blog different address

Welcome! And thanks for visiting. I'm re-creating my blog simply so that the title and the URL are consistent. So, instead of having the URL http://fufufnik.blogspot.com I'm going with an easier to remember http://toddstrade.blogspot.com
So, I apologize for any mix-ups or links lost, but I think this is the better way to go in the long run. I appreciate your understanding.